Image credit: Freight Investor Services (FIS)

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Commentary

Brent crude futures slipped 38 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $79.36 a barrel and U.S. WTI crude futures were at $69.91 per barrel at 02:20 GMT, down 46 cents, or 0.6 percent, from their last settlement. US oil production has dropped by 100,000 bpd to 10.9 million bpd, as it flatlines after such a huge growth over the past two years. This is music to the ears of bulls, who are trumpeting supply constraints like Iran sanctions as if their life depended on it. Yesterday afternoon, like an extremely hot bath, we just dipped our toe in over the $80 level before pulling back, screaming "Arrhhggghh, it's too hot, too high". I imagine we will see a little pull back here after yesterday's fun, and keep an eye on the crack level, as it's currently moving around like a fly on speed. Good day.

Fuel Oil Market (Sep 12)

The front crack opened at -11.65, weakening to -12.10, before strengthening to -11.85. The Cal 19 was valued at -15.40.

Cash premiums of 380 cSt high sulphur fuel oil edged up to a near two-week high on Wednesday amid steady buying interest for physical cargoes in the Singapore trading window.

Sentiment in Asia's fuel oil market steadied this week following steep losses since mid-August that were driven by expectations of rising arbitrage supplies into Singapore over the coming weeks.

But the recent losses were limited by structural declines in output of the fuel as well as refinery turnarounds which were expected to cap overall arbitrage flows in the fourth quarter.

Fuel oil inventories at the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone (FOIZ) climbed 7.3 percent, or 547,000 barrels (about 82,000 tonnes), to a three-week high of 8.056 million barrels (1.202 million tonnes) in the week ended Sept 10.

Economic data/events (Times are London.)

* 9am: IEA monthly Oil Market Report

* 9am: Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile data

* Russian refining maintenance schedule from ministry

* Pareto conference, final day, with speakers including Aker BP CEO Karl Johnny Hersvik, Rowan CFO Stephen Butz

* Eastern Economic Forum, final day

Singapore 380 cSt

Oct18 - 444.50 / 446.50

Nov18 - 440.75 / 442.75

Dec18 - 437.25 / 439.25

Jan19 - 434.00 / 436.00

Feb19 - 430.00 / 432.00

Mar19 - 426.50 / 428.50

Q4-18 - 441.00 / 443.00

Q1-19 - 429.25 / 431.25

Q2-19 - 418.50 / 421.00

Q3-19 - 402.75 / 405.25

CAL19 - 403.75 / 406.75

CAL20 - 338.75 / 344.75

Singapore 180 cSt

Oct18 - 451.00 / 453.00

Nov18 - 448.50 / 450.50

Dec18 - 445.75 / 447.75

Jan19 - 443.50 / 445.50

Feb19 - 440.00 / 442.00

Mar19 - 436.75 / 438.75

Q4-18 - 448.25 / 450.25

Q1-19 - 439.00 / 441.00

Q2-19 - 429.75 / 432.25

Q3-19 - 417.50 / 420.00

CAL19 - 418.25 / 421.25

CAL20 - 358.75 / 364.75

Rotterdam 3.5%

Oct18 - 424.00 / 426.00

Nov18 - 419.75 / 421.75

Dec18 - 416.00 / 418.00

Jan19 - 413.25 / 415.25

Feb19 - 410.75 / 412.75

Mar19 - 408.25 / 410.25

Q4-18 - 420.00 / 422.00

Q1-19 - 410.50 / 412.50

Q2-19 - 400.25 / 402.75

Q3-19 - 380.25 / 382.75

CAL19 - 382.25 / 385.25

CAL20 - 318.75 / 324.75