Image credit: Freight Investor Services (FIS)

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Commentary

Brent crude oil futures were at $75.19 per barrel at 06:40 GMT, up 46 cents, or 0.6 percent, from their last close. Brent is on track for a 4.7 percent weekly rise and U.S. WTI crude futures were at $68.32 per barrel, up 49 cents, or 0.7 percent. WTI is heading for a 3.7 percent weekly increase. Well, in a reversal of prospects we are seeing a nice rise in Brent - back up to the top of the $70-75 trading range. The U.S. and China trade war has turned into something resembling Gangs of New York; handbags has evolved into actual action as more and more tariffs are imposed. Normal service seems to have resumed in China as it signalled that it would start buying U.S. oil again come October. While all this is happening, U.S. production is back up to 11 million barrels per day and Canadian exports via rail are at record levels. It's clear that if you took all the oil production capability in the world, it easily satisfies needs; but this is where complications of humankind comes in. Obviously Venezuela is a mess, and unlikely to get many buyers; Iran is in a sticky mess; Saudis have previously restricted supply to Asia; the U.S. is suffering with supply bottlenecks... and these are just the ones off the top of my head. So yes, there's no shortage of oil, but like anything in this world its more complicated than it first seems: square peg, round hole moment - you may have the oil but it might not necessarily be able to go to the place where it's needed. Have a great weekend.

Fuel Oil Market (Aug 23)

The front crack opened at -9.65, strengthening to -9.55, before weakening to -9.70. The Cal 19 was valued at -14.55.

Asia's fuel oil market held steady on Thursday with 380 cSt front-month time spreads unchanged from the previous session, while cash premiums of the fuel rose slightly on higher deal values

Meanwhile, fewer net imports of fuel oil into Singapore, in the week ended Aug. 22, dragged their inventories to the lowest in more than nine years, official data showed on Thursday.

Total fuel oil flows into East Asia for August is expected to close around 6.5 million tonnes-6.6 million tonnes, assessments by Thomson Reuters Oil Research & Forecasts released on Tuesday showed.

Economic data/events (Times are London.)

* 1:30pm: U.S. durable goods orders July prelim, prior 0.8%, (est. -1.0%)

* 6pm: Baker Hughes weekly U.S. rig count

* ~6:30pm: ICE weekly commitments of traders report for Brent, gasoil

* 8:30pm: CFTC weekly commitments of traders report on various U.S. futures and options contracts

Singapore 380 cSt

Sep18 - 438.25 / 440.25

Oct18 - 432.75 / 434.75

Nov18 - 429.50 / 431.50

Dec18 - 426.50 / 428.50

Jan19 - 422.50 / 424.50

Feb19 - 419.00 / 421.00

Q4-18 - 429.75 / 431.75

Q1-19 - 419.75 / 421.75

Q2-19 - 410.00 / 412.50

Q3-19 - 394.50 / 397.00

CAL19 - 399.00 / 402.00

CAL20 - 333.50 / 339.50

Singapore 180 cSt

Sep18 - 446.50 / 448.50

Oct18 - 441.75 / 443.75

Nov18 - 439.00 / 441.00

Dec18 - 436.00 / 438.00

Jan19 - 432.50 / 434.50

Feb19 - 429.50 / 431.50

Q4-18 - 439.00 / 441.00

Q1-19 - 430.25 / 432.25

Q2-19 - 422.50 / 425.00

Q3-19 - 409.50 / 412.00

CAL19 - 413.75 / 416.75

CAL20 - 356.75 / 362.75

Rotterdam 3.5%

Sep18 - 417.75 / 419.75

Oct18 - 412.50 / 414.50

Nov18 - 408.25 / 410.25

Dec18 - 404.75 / 406.75

Jan19 - 402.50 / 404.50

Feb19 - 400.25 / 402.25

Q4-18 - 408.50 / 410.50

Q1-19 - 400.50 / 402.50

Q2-19 - 391.75 / 394.25

Q3-19 - 373.25 / 375.75

CAL19 - 375.75 / 378.75

CAL20 - 320.25 / 326.25