Image credit: Freight Investor Services (FIS)

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Commentary

Brent closed last night at $72.61, down $0.20, and WTI closed at $67.20, down $0.43. Whoever fell asleep on their mouse last night with it hovering over the Sell button on their WebICE must have woken up and realised that perhaps an afternoon power nap was not good for their P+L. At 7.25pm Dubai time, Brent was trading $72.63. Cue snooze. At 8.25pm Dubai time Brent was trading $71.16. Cue scratch head and a massive stretch, wipe eyes, look at screen, slurp of cold coffee and an almighty OMGGGGG! At 10.25pm Dubai time Brent was trading at $72.65. Phew. Crisis averted, cue switch off screen and go to the pub. Honestly, I cannot think for the life of me why there would be any other reason as to why Brent would drop other than a local having an afternoon snooze. Can you? Snoozy McSnoozerson just leant on his keyboard and that's why we saw the steep drop and climb back and I won't be hearing any other reasons why. Yes, OPEC lowered their demand forecast, but not by much, plus that was earlier in the day. I do have to laugh, though, regarding the tone of the OPEC report quote "The forecast considers that there will be no significant rise in trade tariffs and current disputes will be resolved soon". Ha! That sounds convincing! Wow. There is a fine line between reality and delusion and I fear OPEC have crossed in to it. Kellogg's make both All Bran and Frosties, but they don't taste the same, do they? In OPEC's gold-plated kitchens, I reckon they do. Keep your eye on cable and also Twitter - it has been at least a week since POTUS came out with something mental. Good day.

Fuel Oil Market (Aug 13)

The front crack opened at -8.20, weakening to -8.55, strengthening to -8.50, closing -8.60. The Cal 19 was valued at -14.25.

Time spreads and cash premiums of Asia's 380 cSt fuel oil slipped on Monday albeit on limited trade activity in the paper and physical markets. The 380 cSt Sept/Oct time spread was trading at about $5.75 a tonne by Asia close, down from $6 a tonne on Friday. Cash premiums for physical cargoes of the fuel were also lower on Monday at $5.92 a tonne to Singapore quotes, down from $6.25 a tonne on Friday

Sales of marine fuels in Singapore during July rebounded 3 percent from a one-year low in the previous month to 4.036 million tonnes as more ships called for refuelling at the world's largest bunkering hub. The number of ships that called at Singapore for refuelling climbed to 3,297 in July, up 5 percent from June but 3 percent lower from the same time last year

Economic data/events (Times are London.)

* 11am: U.S. NFIB small business optimism index for July

* 1:30pm: U.S. import price index m/m for July

* 9:30pm: API issues weekly U.S. oil inventory report

* Bloomberg-compiled refinery snapshot for U.S. and Canada, providing offline capacity projections for crude units and FCCs

Singapore 380 cSt

Sep18 - 431.00 / 433.00

Oct18 - 426.00 / 428.00

Nov18 - 422.75 / 424.75

Dec18 - 420.00 / 422.00

Jan19 - 416.75 / 418.75

Feb19 - 413.50 / 415.50

Q4-18 - 422.75 / 424.75

Q1-19 - 413.50 / 415.50

Q2-19 - 404.25 / 406.75

Q3-19 - 388.25 / 390.75

CAL19 - 388.25 / 391.25

CAL20 - 318.50 / 324.50

Singapore 180 cSt

Sep18 - 438.00 / 440.00

Oct18 - 434.50 / 436.50

Nov18 - 431.75 / 433.75

Dec18 - 429.50 / 431.50

Jan19 - 426.75 / 428.75

Feb19 - 423.75 / 425.75

Q4-18 - 432.00 / 434.00

Q1-19 - 424.00 / 426.00

Q2-19 - 416.75 / 419.25

Q3-19 - 403.25 / 405.75

CAL19 - 403.25 / 406.25

CAL20 - 341.75 / 347.75

Rotterdam 3.5%

Sep18 - 409.75 / 411.75

Oct18 - 404.75 / 406.75

Nov18 - 401.25 / 403.25

Dec18 - 398.00 / 400.00

Jan19 - 395.75 / 397.75

Feb19 - 393.25 / 395.25

Q4-18 - 401.50 / 403.50

Q1-19 - 393.00 / 395.00

Q2-19 - 383.75 / 386.25

Q3-19 - 363.50 / 366.00

CAL19 - 366.25 / 369.25

CAL20 - 303.50 / 309.50