Image credit: Freight Investor Services (FIS)

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Commentary

Brent closed Friday up $0.74 to $72.07 and WTI closed at $67.63, up $0.82. We closed up Friday and honestly, I'm not sure anybody knows why. I know sanctions have somewhat offset the tariffs war that is still raging on, but fundamental-wise there isn't another secret factor pushing things up. The only explanation is from the other side of this futures market: the funds and financials; technical trading rules supreme when no one knows what to do. The next six weeks are going to be key - not only for the oil price for the remainder of this year, but also what happens going in to 2019. Cushing inventories being so low are perhaps the only real support for this market right now as all other bullish indicators are, frankly, an excuse. Demand hasn't been as good as many people thought; the trade war is only going to end up in a petty handbags-at-dawn gunfight and I'm pretty sure that Trump has something else up his sleeve that is going to throw a massive spanner in the works. All the while, OPEC are happy plodding along, keeping themselves to themselves and increasing production as if nothing is going on. But apparently the bulls only acknowledge the existence of OPEC twice a year. Good day and week to all.

Fuel Oil Market (Aug 10)

The front crack opened at -8.00, before weakening to -8.30 across the day. The Cal 19 was valued at -14.25

Asia's 180 cSt fuel oil crack at a discount of about $1.67 reflected the narrowest discount in about a week as fundamentals stayed firm on Friday as supplies in key trading hubs of Europe and Asia were down.

Fuel oil stock held independently in the AmsterdamRotterdam-Antwerp refining and storage hub for instance dived nearly 12 percent in the week to Thursday to a near 3- 1/2 month low of 1.052 million tonnes

This came in the same week where Singapore's fuel oil stocks hit a fresh 9-year low of 14.3 million barrels in the week to Aug.7.

Economic data/events (Times are London.)

* 11am-12pm: OPEC issues Monthly Oil Market Report

* 7pm: EIA Monthly Drilling Productivity Report

* Bloomberg proprietary forecast of Cushing crude inventory change; plus weekly analyst survey of crude, gasoline, distillate inventories before Wednesday's EIA weekly inventory report

* Azeri Supsa loading program for September

Singapore 380 cSt

Sep18 - 430.50 / 432.50

Oct18 - 424.50 / 426.50

Nov18 - 420.50 / 422.50

Dec18 - 417.25 / 419.25

Jan19 - 414.00 / 416.00

Feb19 - 411.00 / 413.00

Q4-18 - 420.75 / 422.75

Q1-19 - 411.00 / 413.00

Q2-19 - 401.75 / 404.25

Q3-19 - 385.75 / 388.25

CAL19 - 385.25 / 388.25

CAL20 - 315.75 / 321.75

Singapore 180 cSt

Sep18 - 438.50 / 440.50

Oct18 - 433.75 / 435.75

Nov18 - 430.25 / 432.25

Dec18 - 427.50 / 429.50

Jan19 - 424.75 / 426.75

Feb19 - 422.00 / 424.00

Q4-18 - 430.50 / 432.50

Q1-19 - 422.00 / 424.00

Q2-19 - 414.75 / 417.25

Q3-19 - 401.25 / 403.75

CAL19 - 400.25 / 403.25

CAL20 - 338.75 / 344.75

Rotterdam 3.5%

Sep18 - 408.75 / 410.75

Oct18 - 403.50 / 405.50

Nov18 - 399.50 / 401.50

Dec18 - 396.00 / 398.00

Jan19 - 393.75 / 395.75

Feb19 - 391.50 / 393.50

Q4-18 - 399.50 / 401.50

Q1-19 - 391.00 / 393.00

Q2-19 - 381.75 / 384.25

Q3-19 - 361.50 / 364.00

CAL19 - 363.25 / 366.25

CAL20 - 300.50 / 306.50