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Commentary

Brent closed last night up $0.68 to $74.97 and WTI closed at $70.13, up $1.44. Sep Brent expires today, and the front 3 months are now in contango... let's see how long this lasts. Around this $75 number Brent continues to trade in fairly thin trading. A 360 seems to have happened over the pond, though, with the aggressive CAPITAL LETTER tweets being replaced with somewhat passive remarks that Trump is up for meeting Rouhani. I don't think it will happen, but it certainly is a softer stance prone to less volatility. Who knows what come next - perhaps some bold claim that Iran is a 'fake country', and America doesn't recognise it. Let's see how this develops. OPEC production in July looks like it has increased, which should be expected considering the cut agreement is nigh on null and void with Iran and Venezuela keeping the cartel's gross production figures in check. API data is out later and once again the market will be concentrating on those numbers very closely, mainly because Love Island has finished as opposed to anything actually important. Joking aside, EIA data is of prime importance at the moment, it is once again the only real tangible indicator of prompt demand and the only real one that the market reacts to. Demand is key right now and it has been very well hyped up so far this year. Here are some figures for you: US oil demand is at the same as it was in 1973 and demand in the EU for oil is actually down since then. The real demand growth over the past 4 decades has been from the Asia pacific region - a colossal 280% increase since 1973. Who says a trade war isn't important for demand? Gulp. Good day.

Fuel Oil Market (Jul 30)

The front crack opened at -7.10, weakening to -7.30, before strengthening to -7.25. The Cal 19 was valued at -14.30.

Singapore 380 cSt ex-wharf premiums traded lower last week despite shortages of finished grade bunker fuels for prompt delivery as higher outright prices and concerns of contaminated fuels prompted buyers to seek minimal quantities of the fuel, trade sources said.

Contaminated marine fuel that clogs and damages ship engines has been found in Singapore, the world's largest ship refuelling hub. Ex-wharf premiums for the 380 cSt fuel were at about $5-$6 per tonne to Singapore quotes on Monday, up from about $10-$12 a tonne in the previous week, sources said.

Meanwhile, 380 cSt cash premiums edged slightly lower on Monday, but held near their recently elevated levels amid strong buying interest for physical cargoes of the fuel in the Singapore window

Economic data/events (Times are London.)

* 1:30pm: U.S. Personal Income for June, est. 0.4% (prior 0.4%)

* 2:45pm: Chicago Purchasing Manager for July, est. 62 (prior 64.1)

* 9:30pm: API issues weekly U.S. oil inventory report

* Today:

** Bloomberg-compiled Refinery Snapshot for U.S. and Canada; gives offline capacity projections for crude units and FCCs

** BP earnings

** EIA's Monthly Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production

Singapore 380 cSt

Aug18 - 453.00 / 455.00

Sep18 - 444.00 / 446.00

Oct18 - 438.75 / 440.75

Nov18 - 435.25 / 437.25

Dec18 - 432.25 / 434.25

Jan19 - 428.75 / 430.75

Q4-18 - 435.25 / 437.25

Q1-19 - 425.50 / 427.50

Q2-19 - 416.00 / 418.50

Q3-19 - 396.25 / 398.75

CAL19 - 396.50 / 399.50

CAL20 - 326.00 / 332.00

Singapore 180 cSt

Aug18 - 460.00 / 462.00

Sep18 - 452.50 / 454.50

Oct18 - 448.50 / 450.50

Nov18 - 445.25 / 447.25

Dec18 - 442.25 / 444.25

Jan19 - 439.50 / 441.50

Q4-18 - 445.25 / 447.25

Q1-19 - 436.50 / 438.50

Q2-19 - 428.25 / 430.75

Q3-19 - 412.25 / 414.75

CAL19 - 411.50 / 414.50

CAL20 - 346.00 / 352.00

Rotterdam 3.5%

Aug18 - 429.75 / 431.75

Sep18 - 423.25 / 425.25

Oct18 - 418.75 / 420.75

Nov18 - 415.00 / 417.00

Dec18 - 411.50 / 413.50

Jan19 - 409.25 / 411.25

Q4-18 - 415.00 / 417.00

Q1-19 - 406.25 / 408.25

Q2-19 - 396.25 / 398.75

Q3-19 - 371.25 / 373.75

CAL19 - 374.50 / 377.50

CAL20 - 308.00 / 314.00