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Commentary

Brent closed last night at $78.86, up $0.79, and WTI closed up $0.26 to $74.11. Brent continues to trade in this $75-$80 range and Trump rages on at China and OPEC. I’m surprised he even has any toys left in his pram. His trip to Europe at the end of this week will show further how disruptive he aims to be, with his gaze concentrating on NATO and an embattled British PM facing a potential party rebellion and Brexit disaster. All eyes on EIA data later as the 4th July holidays will prove crucial to show evidence that driving season is as strong as everyone was hoping it would be. Expect to see draws on crude and Cushing levels with the Canadian pipe still shut in. Good day.

Fuel Oil Market (Jul 7)

The front crack opened at -9.70, weakening to -9.80, before strengthening to -9.65, closing -9.70. The Cal 19 was valued at -15.30.

Asia's fuel oil crack slipped for a second straight session on Tuesday, pulled down by higher crude oil prices.The August 180 cSt fuel oil crack to Brent crude was trading at a discount of about $5.69 a barrel on Tuesday, down from minus $5.10 a barrel on Monday.

Despite the widening fuel oil crack this week, trade sources said fuel oil refining margins were relatively strong given the rise in crude oil prices. Fuel oil refining margins would continue to be buoyed by strong market fundamentals over the near term, traders added.

Since May, the fuel oil market sentiment has been boosted by tight supplies of finished grade fuel oil, lower arbitrage arrivals into Asia as well as firm demand for the fuel from the power generation and shipping sectors.

Economic data/events (Times are London.)

* 11am-12pm: OPEC issues Monthly Oil Market Report

* 3:30pm: EIA U.S. oil inventory report

* Genscape weekly ARA crude stockpiles report

Singapore 380 cSt

Aug18 - 448.50 / 450.50

Sep18 - 442.50 / 444.50

Oct18 - 438.00 / 440.00

Nov18 - 434.75 / 436.75

Dec18 - 432.00 / 434.00

Jan19 - 429.00 / 431.00

Q4-18 - 435.00 / 437.00

Q1-19 - 425.50 / 427.50

Q2-19 - 414.25 / 416.75

Q3-19 - 387.50 / 390.00

CAL19 - 392.50 / 395.50

CAL20 - 314.00 / 320.00

Singapore 180 cSt

Aug18 - 455.50 / 457.50

Sep18 - 451.25 / 453.25

Oct18 - 448.00 / 450.00

Nov18 - 444.75 / 446.75

Dec18 - 442.00 / 444.00

Jan19 - 440.00 / 442.00

Q4-18 - 445.00 / 447.00

Q1-19 - 436.75 / 438.75

Q2-19 - 426.50 / 429.00

Q3-19 - 403.50 / 406.00

CAL19 - 407.50 / 410.50

CAL20 - 337.00 / 343.00

Rotterdam 3.5%

Aug18 - 429.50 / 431.50

Sep18 - 424.50 / 426.50

Oct18 - 420.25 / 422.25

Nov18 - 416.25 / 418.25

Dec18 - 412.75 / 414.75

Jan19 - 410.50 / 412.50

Q4-18 - 416.25 / 418.25

Q1-19 - 407.00 / 409.00

Q2-19 - 394.25 / 396.75

Q3-19 - 364.25 / 366.75

CAL19 - 370.75 / 373.75

CAL20 - 298.25 / 304.25