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Commentary

Brent closed up $0.96 last night to $78.07 and WTI closed at $73.85, up $0.05. I'm reading this morning that a possible strike in Norway is causing this market to spike on the back of "possible supply disruptions". Hmmm. Knowing how efficient the people of Norway are, I imagine they will strike for three minutes, come up with a very thorough agreement and be back to work before you can even say 'picket line'. The bulls will jump on any news, though, and crude is trading up this morning. There are still the disruptions in Iran, Libya and Canada giving support like stabilisers to this tricycle of a market. The bulls also ignored comments from H.E. Al Mazrouei yesterday that the UAE can "easily increase production by 400-600,000 bpd". Ignorance is bliss, I suppose.

Fuel Oil Market (Jul 9)

The front crack opened at -9.45, before weakening to -9.60 across the day. The Cal 19 was valued at -15.30.

Asia's prompt-month viscosity spread, the price differential between the prompt-month swaps for 180 cSt and 380 cSt fuel oil grades, slipped to a near four-month low on Monday

Relatively strong 380 cSt fuel oil prices contributed to the weaker viscosity spread amid supply shortages and firm demand for the higher viscosity fuel, trade sources said. The balance-of-July viscosity spread was trading at around $7 a tonne on Monday, down 50 cents a tonne from the previous session and its lowest since March 8.

Economic data/events (Times are London.)

* ~5pm.: EIA STEO with expanded forecast discussion

* 9:30pm: API U.S. oil inventory report

* Bloomberg-compiled REFINERY SNAPSHOT for U.S. and Canada, providing offline capacity projections for crude units and FCCs

Singapore 380 cSt

Aug18 - 456.25 / 458.25

Sep18 - 450.25 / 452.25

Oct18 - 445.75 / 447.75

Nov18 - 443.00 / 445.00

Dec18 - 440.25 / 442.25

Jan19 - 436.50 / 438.50

Q4-18 - 443.00 / 445.00

Q1-19 - 433.00 / 435.00

Q2-19 - 421.75 / 424.25

Q3-19 - 395.00 / 397.50

CAL19 - 400.75 / 403.75

CAL20 - 322.25 / 328.25

Singapore 180 cSt

Aug18 - 463.50 / 465.50

Sep18 - 459.00 / 461.00

Oct18 - 455.75 / 457.75

Nov18 - 453.00 / 455.00

Dec18 - 450.25 / 452.25

Jan19 - 447.50 / 449.50

Q4-18 - 453.00 / 455.00

Q1-19 - 444.25 / 446.25

Q2-19 - 434.00 / 436.50

Q3-19 - 411.00 / 413.50

CAL19 - 416.00 / 419.00

CAL20 - 345.50 / 351.50

Rotterdam 3.5%

Aug18 - 437.00 / 439.00

Sep18 - 432.50 / 434.50

Oct18 - 428.25 / 430.25

Nov18 - 424.25 / 426.25

Dec18 - 420.75 / 422.75

Jan19 - 418.50 / 420.50

Q4-18 - 424.50 / 426.50

Q1-19 - 415.25 / 417.25

Q2-19 - 402.50 / 405.00

Q3-19 - 372.50 / 375.00

CAL19 - 379.00 / 382.00

CAL20 - 305.25 / 311.25