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Commentary

Brent closed Friday down $0.28 to $77.11 and WTI closed up $0.86 to $73.80. At the moment all eyes are on Cushing, and the fact that the Canadian crude outage has perhaps skewed the outlook on storage levels there. The front 2 WTI spreads certainly evidence a tightness in supply, but normal service will, apparently, resume at the end of July. Keep your eye on this. Also, keep your eye on Beryl. No, not your mate's mad Aunt Beryl, but Hurricane Beryl in The Caribbean. Actually, keep your eye on hurricane season with the same beady eyes as Jordan Pickford as the mere hint of the USGC oil system going down is more than likely going to yield in prices spiking upwards towards $85. Eeeek. In other news, the trade spat between China and the USA seems to have largely been priced in, but Brexit rumblings carry on in the same embarrassing way as they have done for two years. Good day.

Fuel Oil Market (Jul 6)

The front crack opened at -9.60, strengthening to -9.25,before weakening to -9.35. The Cal 19 was valued at -15.05

Asia's fuel oil market edged up on Friday with the 380 cSt Aug/Sept time spread and the front-month 380 cSt barge crack to Brent crude trading higher.

Weaker crude oil prices on Friday contributed to the narrowing fuel oil discount to Brent crude, they said. For the week, the fuel oil market ended lower, retreating from the multi-year highs seen in the previous week

Some trade sources said that last week's multi-year highs in cash premiums and front-month time spreads were unreasonable and that a correction was inevitable.

Economic data/events (Times are London.)

* Azeri BTC loading program for August

* 8:30pm: CFTC weekly commitments of traders report (pushed back from Friday due to U.S. holiday)

* Bloomberg proprietary forecast of Cushing crude inventory change; plus weekly analyst survey of crude, gasoline, distillate inventories before Wednesday’s EIA weekly inventory report

* What to Watch in Commodities: Trade War, Crude, El Nino, Miners

Singapore 380 cSt

Aug18 - 450.00 / 452.00

Sep18 - 444.00 / 446.00

Oct18 - 439.50 / 441.50

Nov18 - 436.00 / 438.00

Dec18 - 433.00 / 435.00

Jan19 - 429.50 / 431.50

Q4-18 - 436.00 / 438.00

Q1-19 - 426.00 / 428.00

Q2-19 - 414.50 / 417.00

Q3-19 - 387.50 / 390.00

CAL19 - 393.00 / 396.00

CAL20 - 314.50 / 320.50

Singapore 180 cSt

Aug18 - 459.00 / 461.00

Sep18 - 453.50 / 455.50

Oct18 - 449.75 / 451.75

Nov18 - 446.50 / 448.50

Dec18 - 443.75 / 445.75

Jan19 - 441.00 / 443.00

Q4-18 - 446.50 / 448.50

Q1-19 - 437.75 / 439.75

Q2-19 - 427.50 / 430.00

Q3-19 - 404.50 / 407.00

CAL19 - 408.00 / 411.00

CAL20 - 337.50 / 343.50

Rotterdam 3.5%

Aug18 - 431.00 / 433.00

Sep18 - 426.00 / 428.00

Oct18 - 421.50 / 423.50

Nov18 - 417.50 / 419.50

Dec18 - 413.75 / 415.75

Jan19 - 411.50 / 413.50

Q4-18 - 417.50 / 419.50

Q1-19 - 407.25 / 409.25

Q2-19 - 394.50 / 397.00

Q3-19 - 363.50 / 366.00

CAL19 - 371.25 / 374.25

CAL20 - 297.50 / 303.50