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Commentary

At 06:49 GMT, Brent crude futures were down 7 cents, or 0.1 percent, at $77.32, and U.S. WTI crude futures were up 16 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last settlement at $73.10 per barrel. Well, there was a surprise. The API were wrong about U.S. stock levels. I think we need to revise a well-known saying to: 'There are only three certain things in life: death, taxes, and the API are always wrong'. The geopolitical situation is definitely taking an interesting turn. Trump raging at Iran and OPEC, even though Iran want to produce more oil; but OPEC doesn't want to as much as the U.S. want, even though U.S. producers are happy with higher prices and market share against OPEC. But Iran isn't happy about sanctions, so has threatened to block the straight of Hormuz, which is such a basic barrel reaction. Then India and China are like: "This isn't fair. I'm being brought into your drama". I think I'm going to pitch an idea of a new TV programme. Move over Love Island, say hello to Oil Island. Watch as the relationships of the world's oil politicians play out in front of your screens. Get all the gossip and see who shacks up with who. After all that drama I wish you all a peaceful weekend.

Fuel Oil Market (Jul 5)

The front crack opened at -10.00, weakening to -10.20, before strengthening to -9.75. The Cal 19 was valued at - 15.00.

Asia's 380 cSt high-sulphur fuel oil market steadied on Thursday after steady declines since the start of the week sent cash premiums and front-month time spreads to a more than one-week low on Wednesday. While fundamentals were still supportive, some trade sources said the previous week's high premiums were unjustified and that some retraction was expected

Singapore's weekly onshore fuel oil inventories dropped 6 percent, or 1.155 million barrels (about 172,000 tonnes), to 17.527 million barrels (2.616 million tonnes) in the week ended July 4, data from International Enterprise (IE) Singapore showed on Thursday

Economic data/events (Times are London.)

* 6pm: Baker Hughes U.S. Rotary Oil Rigs, prior 858

* ~6:30pm: ICE weekly commitments of traders report for Brent, gasoil

** See OIL WEEKLY AGENDA for this week’s events

Singapore 380 cSt

Aug18 - 446.75 / 448.75

Sep18 - 441.00 / 443.00

Oct18 - 436.50 / 438.50

Nov18 - 433.25 / 435.25

Dec18 - 430.25 / 432.25

Jan19 - 426.75 / 428.75

Q4-18 - 433.50 / 435.50

Q1-19 - 423.50 / 425.50

Q2-19 - 412.00 / 414.50

Q3-19 - 385.00 / 387.50

CAL19 - 390.50 / 393.50

CAL20 - 312.00 / 318.00

Singapore 180 cSt

Aug18 - 456.00 / 458.00

Sep18 - 450.75 / 452.75

Oct18 - 447.00 / 449.00

Nov18 - 444.00 / 446.00

Dec18 - 441.25 / 443.25

Jan19 - 438.50 / 440.50

Q4-18 - 444.00 / 446.00

Q1-19 - 435.25 / 437.25

Q2-19 - 425.00 / 427.50

Q3-19 - 402.00 / 404.50

CAL19 - 405.75 / 408.75

CAL20 - 335.25 / 341.25

Rotterdam 3.5%

Aug18 - 428.00 / 430.00

Sep18 - 423.00 / 425.00

Oct18 - 418.50 / 420.50

Nov18 - 414.50 / 416.50

Dec18 - 410.75 / 412.75

Jan19 - 408.50 / 410.50

Q4-18 - 414.75 / 416.75

Q1-19 - 404.50 / 406.50

Q2-19 - 391.75 / 394.25

Q3-19 - 360.75 / 363.25

CAL19 - 368.75 / 371.75

CAL20 - 295.00 / 301.00