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Commentary

Brent crude futures were at $77.68 per barrel at 05:32 GMT, down 56 cents, or 0.7 percent, from their last close. U.S. WTI crude futures were down 45 cents, or 0.6 percent, at $73.69 per barrel. Well, as the oil world picks up the toys thrown out of the POTUS pram, a weird dichotomy has appeared. On the one hand, the desire of the U.S. administration to impose sanctions on Iran, but also the age-old U.S. domestic issue of higher gasoline prices. Now certain people may not like it, but in life, everything has a consequence: you do the hot wing challenge at Cheeky Banditos restaurant down the road and you then may need gastric surgery; you support any English sports team and you will be subjected to decades of anguish; you trade fuel oil swaps with FIS and you avoid all the oil risk. Act leads to consequence. I mean, how dare OPEC try and keep prices high - which clearly has a beneficial impact on them. How could anyone ever think they would do a thing like that, and have any compassion for the average American driver? Anyway, U.S. stocks data at 4pm UK time, and if the API is anything to believe (which it usually isn't), we are looking at a significant draw across the board of crude and products. That could put us back on the road to $80 if confirmed, which you can already see in this morning's market. Good day.

Fuel Oil Market (Jul 4)

The front crack opened at -9.60, weakening to -9.90, before strengthening to -9.85. The Cal 19 was valued at -15.00.

Asia's fuel oil markets softened on Wednesday, further slipping away from multi-month highs seen in the previous week, but sentiment remained supportive on expectations of tight supplies and firm demand through August, trade sources said. This came as 380 cSt fuel oil cash premium FO380-SIN-DIF and the prompt-month time-spread slipped to its lowest in more than a week on Wednesday.

The front-month 380 cSt fuel oil East-West spread also fell as some suppliers looked to secure fresh supplies into Asia from Northwest Europe. Snapping five straight sessions of gains, the front-month arbitrage spread slipped to $18.25 a tonne on Wednesday, from a near eight-month high of $19 a tonne in the previous session. Asia's fuel oil market has gained considerable support since late-April amid narrowing supplies and strong Middle East demand for the fuel, diverted some European arbitrage supplies away from Asia.

Economic data/events (Times are London.)

* 9am: Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile data

* 4pm: EIA releases weekly petroleum inventory (delayed from Wednesday due to U.S. holiday)

* Russian refining maintenance schedule from ministry

Singapore 380 cSt

Aug18 - 445.25 / 447.25

Sep18 - 440.50 / 442.50

Oct18 - 436.50 / 438.50

Nov18 - 433.50 / 435.50

Dec18 - 430.50 / 432.50

Jan19 - 427.00 / 429.00

Q4-18 - 433.50 / 435.50

Q1-19 - 423.50 / 425.50

Q2-19 - 412.00 / 414.50

Q3-19 - 385.00 / 387.50

CAL19 - 390.50 / 393.50

CAL20 - 312.25 / 318.25

Singapore 180 cSt

Aug18 - 454.25 / 456.25

Sep18 - 450.00 / 452.00

Oct18 - 446.75 / 448.75

Nov18 - 444.00 / 446.00

Dec18 - 441.25 / 443.25

Jan19 - 438.50 / 440.50

Q4-18 - 444.00 / 446.00

Q1-19 - 435.25 / 437.25

Q2-19 - 425.00 / 427.50

Q3-19 - 402.00 / 404.50

CAL19 - 406.00 / 409.00

CAL20 - 335.50 / 341.50

Rotterdam 3.5%

Aug18 - 428.00 / 430.00

Sep18 - 423.50 / 425.50

Oct18 - 419.25 / 421.25

Nov18 - 415.25 / 417.25

Dec18 - 411.50 / 413.50

Jan19 - 409.00 / 411.00

Q4-18 - 415.25 / 417.25

Q1-19 - 405.00 / 407.00

Q2-19 - 390.75 / 393.25

Q3-19 - 359.75 / 362.25

CAL19 - 369.00 / 372.00

CAL20 - 295.25 / 301.25