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Commentary

Brent closed last night up $0.46 to $77.76 and WTI closed at $74.14, up $0.20. The Brent market remains firmly stuck in a 75 - 80 range, as it has done for the last two months, more or less, and apart from some real bullish demand data coming through over the next few weeks, I do wonder if $80 is the top of this market. API reported a 4.5 million barrel draw in US crude stocks, as well as draws in products, which definitely could be used as an excuse to push this market back towards the top of the range. It's already pushed back the loses we saw late yesterday. EIA data out tomorrow. Good day.

Fuel Oil Market (Jul 3)

The front crack opened at -9.60, strengthening to -9.55, before weakening to -9.65, closing -9.60. The Cal 19 was valued at -15.00

Asia's fuel oil markets shed recent gains to ease for a second straight session on Tuesday as cash premiums and time spreads narrowed their premiums to multi-session lows. Despite the weaker prices, trade sources said the fundamentals underpinning the near-term fuel oil market remained bullish with firm seasonal demand and limited supplies continuing to characterise the market. Cash premiums of 180 cSt fuel oil slipped to a one-week low of $4.26 a tonne to Singapore quotes, while premiums of the mainstay 380 cSt fuel oil was at their narrowest since June 21 at $3.93 a tonne to Singapore quotes.

A persistent crunch in supply of fuel oil to Asia driven by reduced shipments from exporters such as Iran and Venezuela, and a surge in Middle East seasonal demand has pushed a key fuel's cash premium to Singapore prices to a three-year peak on Friday.

Economic data/events (Times are London.)

* U.S. Holiday, Independence Day, stock and bond markets are closed, along with government offices

** CME Globex energy derivatives halt trading early at 6pm on July 4 then reopen at normal time of 11pm later that day

* Genscape weekly ARA crude stockpiles report

Singapore 380 cSt

Aug18 - 448.00 / 450.00

Sep18 - 442.25 / 444.25

Oct18 - 438.00 / 440.00

Nov18 - 434.50 / 436.50

Dec18 - 431.25 / 433.25

Jan19 - 427.75 / 429.75

Q4-18 - 434.75 / 436.75

Q1-19 - 424.75 / 426.75

Q2-19 - 413.25 / 415.75

Q3-19 - 386.25 / 388.75

CAL19 - 389.50 / 392.50

CAL20 - 311.25 / 317.25

Singapore 180 cSt

Aug18 - 457.00 / 459.00

Sep18 - 452.00 / 454.00

Oct18 - 448.25 / 450.25

Nov18 - 445.00 / 447.00

Dec18 - 442.00 / 444.00

Jan19 - 439.25 / 441.25

Q4-18 - 445.25 / 447.25

Q1-19 - 436.50 / 438.50

Q2-19 - 426.25 / 428.75

Q3-19 - 403.25 / 405.75

CAL19 - 404.75 / 407.75

CAL20 - 334.25 / 340.25

Rotterdam 3.5%

Aug18 - 430.25 / 432.25

Sep18 - 425.50 / 427.50

Oct18 - 421.00 / 423.00

Nov18 - 416.75 / 418.75

Dec18 - 413.00 / 415.00

Jan19 - 410.50 / 412.50

Q4-18 - 417.00 / 419.00

Q1-19 - 406.75 / 408.75

Q2-19 - 392.50 / 395.00

Q3-19 - 361.50 / 364.00

CAL19 - 368.00 / 371.00

CAL20 - 294.25 / 300.25