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Commentary

Brent closed last night at $73.05, down $1.69, and WTI closed at $65.54, down $0.68. Well, week on week, Brent is down about 4%. Could have been a lot worse, I suppose, and at the time of writing, Brent is up a buck to $74.05. Not bad. However, OPEC either got the dates wrong on their meeting, ("hang on a minute, who said anything about meeting on a Saturday?!! I've got a tee time booked for 2.15!!"), or they have pulled off a genius stroke by delaying an announcement which is bound to be of a bearish nature when the markets are shut. Dangerous game that, however; it's like going to the pub when you know if you do you will be in the dog house. Saudi and Russia rule the roost and even though there may be some negotiating to be done, at the end of the day those two countries have a) taken it upon themselves really to lead at the front regarding compliance and b) have the ability to crank up production to 11 PDQ, regardless of what you might read to the contrary. The reason we are up this morning is because the market is going to come off later on when Vienna finishes eating fondant fancies and drinking that expensive coffee that odd cat makes in Indonesia. Buy it in the morning, sell it in the afternoon. OPEC trading 101. Press conference scheduled for 13:00 BST, so delay the pub until after that. Enjoy the weekend.

Fuel Oil Market (June 21)

The front crack opened at -9.70, weakening to -9.75, before strengthening to -9.65, closing -9.75. The Cal 19 was valued at -16.10 .

Asia's 180 cSt fuel oil crack strengthened for a second day on Thursday, with the value reaching a discount of about $5.15 a barrel, the narrowest discount since June 6, supported by falling supplies and lower oil prices

Singapore's fuel oil stocks for instance fell by about 4.6 percent or 925,000 barrels to reach a four-week low of 19.2 million barrels in the week to June 20, official data showed. Current stock levels reflected a 17.7 percent drop in stocks compared to the same period last year. The data came in the same week when fuel oil inventories in Fujairah were also down.

Economic data/events (Times are London.)

* 7:45am France GDP YoY, 1QF, survey 2.2%, prior 2.2%

* 8:30am Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI, survey 56.3, prior 56.9

* TODAY:

* OPEC officials including Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih gather for formal ministerial meeting in Vienna, starting ~9am London.

* OPEC ministers also will have talks with non-OPEC participants Saturday at 10am Vienna time

* Baker Hughes rig count

* Venezuela Crude Oil Basket CNY, period June 22

* ICE weekly commitments of traders report for Brent, gasoil

* CFTC weekly commitments of traders report on various U.S. futures and options contracts

Singapore 380 cSt

Jul18 - 424.25 / 426.25

Aug18 - 418.50 / 420.50

Sep18 - 413.00 / 415.00

Oct18 - 408.75 / 410.75

Nov18 - 405.25 / 407.25

Dec18 - 402.00 / 404.00

Q3-18 - 418.75 / 420.75

Q4-18 - 405.75 / 407.75

Q1-19 - 395.25 / 397.75

Q2-19 - 383.75 / 386.25

CAL19 - 362.00 / 365.00

CAL20 - 296.50 / 301.50

Singapore 180 cSt

Jul18 - 434.50 / 436.50

Aug18 - 429.25 / 431.25

Sep18 - 423.75 / 425.75

Oct18 - 419.25 / 421.25

Nov18 - 416.25 / 418.25

Dec18 - 413.25 / 415.25

Q3-18 - 429.25 / 431.25

Q4-18 - 416.50 / 418.50

Q1-19 - 406.50 / 409.00

Q2-19 - 395.50 / 398.00

CAL19 - 376.50 / 379.50

CAL20 - 310.50 / 315.50

Rotterdam 3.5%

Jul18 - 403.75 / 405.75

Aug18 - 400.50 / 402.50

Sep18 - 396.25 / 398.25

Oct18 - 391.75 / 393.75

Nov18 - 387.50 / 389.50

Dec18 - 383.50 / 385.50

Q3-18 - 400.25 / 402.25

Q4-18 - 387.00 / 389.00

Q1-19 - 376.75 / 379.25

Q2-19 - 363.25 / 365.75

CAL19 - 340.50 / 343.50

CAL20 - 273.50 / 278.50