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Commentary

Brent closed last night at $75.39 and WTI closed at $66.73. I wonder if this really is the start of a correction in oil prices many had predicted but few had hoped for. Let's be honest, prices have performed very well so far this year; when we hit the $80 level last week on Brent, that meant prices were up 20pct since Jan 1st. Prices since this time last year are up 50%. Impressive. But as with anything in life, there is an undulation: there's a good run of things in a relatively short amount of time - Leicester City for example - but eventually things will correct themselves. It's a bit like reading a George R.R. Martin book where you can finally start identifying and getting behind a character and just when you think they are going to win in the book, boom, he kills them off. EIA data is out tomorrow owing to the Memorial Day holiday, but the next few weeks set of data will actually prove if those people who said that demand will be as strong as they predicted. All eyes seem to be pointing towards the next OPEC meeting, but I agree with an article I read this morning - seeing as Saudi Arabia are the de facto leaders of OPEC, I wonder what will happen to their OSP's to Asia when they are released next week - or will that particular door be shut for ever increasing US oil exports?

Energy ministers from Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E. and Kuwait plan to meet on Saturday to discuss OPEC matters, about a week after the Saudis, Russians announced new policy to revive oil output. API to issue weekly U.S. inventory report, 9:30pm London Time; delayed by one day due to U.S. holiday.

Economic data/events (Times are London.)

* 12pm: MBA Mortgage Applications, May 25

* 1:15pm: U.S. ADP Employment Change, May

* 1:30pm: U.S. Wholesale Inventories, April (prelim)

* 1:30pm: U.S. GDP Annualized, 1Q

* 1:30pm: U.S. Retail Inventories, April

* 7pm: U.S. Federal Reserve releases Beige Book

* 9:30pm: API issues weekly U.S. oil inventory report

* Genscape weekly ARA crude stockpiles report

* Bloomberg-compiled Refinery Snapshot for U.S. and Canada; gives offline

Singapore 380 cSt

Jun18 - 427.75 / 429.75

Jul18 - 424.25 / 426.25

Aug18 - 421.00 / 423.00

Sep18 - 417.50 / 419.50

Oct18 - 413.75 / 415.75

Nov18 - 410.25 / 412.25

Q3-18 - 421.00 / 423.00

Q4-18 - 410.25 / 412.25

Q1-19 - 398.25 / 400.75

Q2-19 - 384.75 / 387.25

CAL19 - 363.50 / 366.50

CAL20 - 291.00 / 296.00

Singapore 180 cSt

Jun18 - 439.00 / 441.00

Jul18 - 435.50 / 437.50

Aug18 - 431.75 / 433.75

Sep18 - 428.25 / 430.25

Oct18 - 424.75 / 426.75

Nov18 - 421.50 / 423.50

Q3-18 - 432.00 / 434.00

Q4-18 - 421.25 / 423.25

Q1-19 - 409.50 / 412.00

Q2-19 - 396.50 / 399.00

CAL19 - 378.00 / 381.00

CAL20 - 305.00 / 310.00

Rotterdam 3.5%

Jun18 - 411.25 / 413.25

Jul18 - 408.50 / 410.50

Aug18 - 405.00 / 407.00

Sep18 - 401.00 / 403.00

Oct18 - 396.50 / 398.50

Nov18 - 391.75 / 393.75

Q3-18 - 404.75 / 406.75

Q4-18 - 392.00 / 394.00

Q1-19 - 380.00 / 382.50

Q2-19 - 365.75 / 368.25

CAL19 - 342.25 / 345.25

CAL20 - 276.75 / 281.75