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Commentary

Brent closed last night at $73.13 and WTI closed at $67.25. Brent is stuttering as it struggles to break out above $75 per bbl. I wonder though: Q1 saw us more or less trading in a $65-$70 per bbl range; Q2 so far has seen us trade in more or less a $70 -$75 range. Does that mean Q3 is $75-$80 and Q4 $80-$85? Or is it really not that rudimentary? I think the time has passed to justify whether crude oil prices should be up here. I'm pretty sure we will flirt with some wild numbers over the course of the next ten days until POTUS decides whether to reimpose sanctions on Iran. Mr Netanyahu has certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons, it seems, so we will have to wait and see the course of action Trump decides. What else is going on? EIA data is out later. Apparently, we will see a build on crude and gasoline according to API. That's not particularly encouraging for the bulls who trade against numbers still, but there is some light at the end of the tunnel with Cushing stocks declining by 750kb. With driving season around the corner, any builds on gasoline could cause this market to decline, and decline fast.

Fuel Oil Market (May 01)

The front crack opened at -12.75, strengthening to -12.25, before weakening to -12.30, closing -12.25. The Cal 19 was valued at -16.95.

Economic Data and Events: (Times are London.)

* 12pm: MBA Mortgage Applications for April 27 (prior -0.2%)

* 1:15pm: ADP Employment Change for April, est. 198k (prior 241k)

* 3:30pm: DOE U.S. Crude Inventories for April 27

** TOPLive blog coverage begins 3:20pm

* 7pm: FOMC Rate Decision

** Russia public holiday

** Russia issues monthly oil production, exports data for April

** Genscape weekly ARA crude stockpiles report

** Saudi Aramco may issue June OSPs as soon as May 2, or later in week

** North Sea Brent loading program for June

** Revised/final CPC loading program for May could emerge as soon as today

Singapore 380 cSt

Jun18 - 401.25 / 403.25

Jul18 - 398.25 / 400.25

Aug18 - 395.50 / 397.50

Sep18 - 392.75 / 394.75

Oct18 - 389.75 / 391.75

Nov18 - 386.75 / 388.75

Q3-18 - 395.50 / 397.50

Q4-18 - 387.00 / 389.00

Q1-19 - 376.50 / 379.00

Q2-19 - 366.00 / 368.50

CAL19 - 338.75 / 341.75

Singapore 180 cSt

Jun18 - 413.00 / 415.00

Jul18 - 410.00 / 412.00

Aug18 - 407.00 / 409.00

Sep18 - 404.00 / 406.00

Oct18 - 401.00 / 403.00

Nov18 - 397.75 / 399.75

Q3-18 - 407.00 / 409.00

Q4-18 - 398.25 / 400.25

Q1-19 - 388.00 / 390.50

Q2-19 - 377.75 / 380.25

CAL19 - 353.00 / 356.00

Rotterdam Barges

Jun18 - 387.00 / 389.00

Jul18 - 384.00 / 386.00

Aug18 - 380.50 / 382.50

Sep18 - 376.75 / 378.75

Oct18 - 372.75 / 374.75

Nov18 - 368.50 / 370.50

Q3-18 - 380.50 / 382.50

Q4-18 - 368.50 / 370.50

Q1-19 - 358.00 / 360.50

Q2-19 - 345.75 / 348.25

CAL19 - 318.75 / 321.75