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Commentary

Brent closed last night up $1.90 to $73.48, and WTI closed at $68.72, up $2.20. Sometimes things in life are just beyond your control and you can do nothing about it. The classic death and taxes line comes to mind. This morning's oil market version of the Telegraph cryptic crossword is an article about the two grades of 0.5% sulphur bunker blends. 1 Down: Paraffinic grade, straight-run refinery processes, without cracked components. Pour point of 33 degrees Celsius, density of 933 and viscosity of 218 CST. 10 across: Aromatic grade, cracked blend of mainly visbreaker residue, light cycle oils, catalytic cracker and hydrocracker bottoms. Pour point of 9 degrees Celsius. Driving season is just around the corner and who is going to get in their V8 Chevy Silverado (or any other luxury brand of pickup truck so that my neutrality is kept intact), and fill up on 3 dollar gas to go and see Auntie Mable? It doesn't matter about how much the US are producing or if the tensions in the middle are dissipating or if actual demand figures are coming under what was forecast 5 months ago. The market is now seemingly totally detached from the fundamentals. But why does it matter? Higher prices work for everyone apart from the consumer, but sooner or later Joe the Plumber will make his voice heard.

Fuel Oil Market (April 18)

The front crack opened at -12.75, strengthening to -12.60, before weakening to -13.15. The Cal 19 was valued at -14.80.

Expectations of tighter supplies over the near-term helped lift the front-month East-West arbitrage spread on Wednesday. The May 380 cSt fuel oil discount to Brent crude was also slightly firmer despite the rise in crude prices. Fujairah fuel oil inventories rose 2 percent to a three-month high of 8.628 million barrels (about 1.288 million tonnes) in the week to April 16.

Economic Data and Events

* 1:30pm: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, April

* 1:30pm: U.S. Continuing Claims, April 7

* 1:30pm: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, April 14

* 2:45pm: U.S. Bloomberg Economic Expectations, April

* 2:45pm: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, April 15

* API Monthly Statistical Report

* Columbia University Global Energy Summit, with speakers to include CEOs from ConocoPhillips and Sun Power

* OPEC's Joint Technical Committee meets in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

* Petrostrategies conference in Paris, with Total CEO Patrick Pouyanne, Saudi Aramco CEO

Singapore 380 cSt

May18 - 393.00 / 395.00

Jun18 -392.25 / 394.25

Jul18 - 391.00 / 393.00

Aug18 - 389.25 / 391.25

Sep18 - 387.25 / 389.25

Oct18 - 385.25 / 387.25

Q3-18 - 389.00 / 391.00

Q4-18 - 382.50 / 384.50

Q1-19 - 373.75 / 376.25

Q2-19 - 366.50 / 369.00

CAL19 - 346.50 / 349.50

CAL20 - 281.50 / 286.50

Singapore 180 cSt

May18 - 404.50 / 406.50

Jun18 - 403.50 / 405.50

Jul18 - 402.00 / 404.00

Aug18 - 400.25 / 402.25

Sep18 - 398.25 / 400.25

Oct18 - 396.25 / 398.25

Q3-18 - 400.00 / 402.00

Q4-18 - 393.50 / 395.50

Q1-19 - 385.00 / 387.50

Q2-19 - 379.00 / 381.50

CAL19 - 361.50 / 364.50

CAL20 - 305.50 / 310.50

Rotterdam Barges

May18 380.25 / 382.25

Jun18 379.75 / 381.75

Jul18 378.25 / 380.25

Aug18 376.25 / 378.25

Sep18 373.50 / 375.50

Oct18 - 370.25 / 372.25

Q3-18 376.00 / 378.00

Q4-18 366.50 / 368.50

Q1-19 358.25 / 360.75

Q2-18 349.25 / 351.75

CAL19 327.00 / 330.00

CAL20 268.00 / 273.00