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Commentary

Brent closed last night at $68.02 down $0.10, WTI closed at $63.37, down $0.14 and INE closed at Y402.30 per bbl or $63.85. Sometimes numbers are easy to put into perspective. For example: 180, the number of minutes Arsenal's solid defence haven't let a Premier League goal in. 31, the number of minutes it took Liverpool to spank Man City last night. 5, the number of minutes it took me to demolish an Easter egg last weekend. See, easy. But when someone puts a billion at the end of any number it all goes a little bit skewed. Bahrain announced Monday they had found 80 billon bbls of shale oil and 14 trillion cubic feet of gas. I'm sure many people can't quite fathom those kinds of numbers, but one thing I can say is that it's a lot. A lot, a lot. ExxonMobil has increased the size of its Permian resource from less than 3 billion barrels of oil equivalents (Bboe) to 9.5 Bboe. Iraq have said they are going to increase their oil production to 6.5mnbpd from current production of 4.6mnbpd. With these kinds of predictions, the market seems unsure of what to do. With all this production coming into the market, some will be taken out by need to increase due to depletion of current wells. I know demand generally is apparently inching higher, but I wouldn't put the term "inching" against the supply outlook. A definite long-term concern for suppliers. Driving season in the US isn't that far away and I think it is going to prove crucial for the market as a real tangible indicator if demand is actually there.

Fuel Oil Market (April 4)

The front crack opened at -11.85, strengthening to -11.20, before weakening to -11.55. The Cal 19 was valued at -14.50.

Asia's prompt-month viscosity spread extended gains for a sixth consecutive session to a near three-year high on Wednesday after almost three weeks of steady gains. Concerns of tight blendstock supplies over the coming month have helped boost the low-viscosity fuel oil market in recent weeks.

Fujairah fuel oil inventories slipped 1.4 percent to a fourweek low of 7.049 million barrels (about 1.052 million tonnes) in the week to April 2.

Total fuel oil flows into East Asia for April is expected to close under last month's 13-month high of 6.9-7.0 million tonnes, on lower arrivals from all three supply regions - the West, the Middle East and Asia - assessments by Thomson Reuters Oil Research showed on Tuesday.

Economic Data and Events

* 1:30pm: U.S. weekly initial jobless claims for March est. 225k (prior 215k)

* Census Bureau releases U.S. crude exports for February

* Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile data

* Russian refining maintenance schedule from ministry

Singapore 380 cSt

May18 - 369.25 / 371.25

Jun18 - 368.75 / 370.75

Jul18 - 367.50 / 369.50

Aug18 - 366.00 / 368.00

Sep18 - 364.25 / 366.25

Oct18 - 362.25 / 364.25

Q3-18 - 366.00 / 368.00

Q4-18 - 360.25 / 362.25

Q1-19 - 353.25 / 355.75

Q2-19 - 346.50 / 349.50

CAL19 - 325.75 / 330.75

CAL20 - 266.00 / 274.00

Singapore 180 cSt

May18 - 378.75 / 380.75

Jun18 - 378.00 / 380.00

Jul18 - 376.50 / 378.50

Aug18 - 375.00 / 377.00

Sep18 - 373.25 / 375.25

Oct18 - 371.25 / 373.25

Q3-18 - 375.00 / 377.00

Q4-18 - 369.50 / 371.50

Q1-19 - 362.75 / 365.25

Q2-19 -357.25 / 360.25

CAL19 - 339.75 / 344.75

CAL20 - 290.25 / 298.25

Rotterdam Barges

May18 357.00 / 359.00

Jun18 356.50 / 358.50

Jul18 355.00 / 357.00

Aug18 353.00 / 355.00

Sep18 350.25 / 352.25

Oct18 - 347.25 / 349.25

Q3-18 352.75 / 354.75

Q4-18 343.75 / 345.75

Q1-19 336.75 / 339.25

Q2-18 328.25 / 331.25

CAL19 307.00 / 312.00

CAL20 257.50 / 265.50