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Commentary

Brent closed down $0.33 last night to $70.12, WTI closed at $65.55, down $0.33, and Sep INE closed at 433.80 Y/bbl (or $68.64 based on 6.32 rmb/USD conversion). An interesting day yesterday, and one which I wonder will prove to be a historical one in the oil trading world. The INE launch was something that has been discussed about for years and as with anything that is seemingly delayed, eventually you turn into the boy who cried wolf and nobody believes you. A bit like when telling your wife "I'll be home by 11 as I'm only having a couple" wears too thin. The INE market still has to find its feet but I rather think this could be a seismic movement on both the Chinese and Middle East crude markets and how they are priced. If only INE accepted shale oil barrels to be delivered, then that really would liven everyone up, wouldn't it? Platts have said that they will be li ting daily cargo and barge assessments for low sulphur fuels from 2 January 2019. The new price assessments will be for loadings in Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston, and barges in Rotterdam, and come into effect a year before the regulations come into force. Hopefully this will calm fears of the unknown of what was going to happen, and given people something more tangible to work with to work with in the months leading up to January 2020. With the large movements in the past few weeks, building speculation on geopolitical matters, and a four-day week due to Good Friday, it seems to have turned into flat Monday and Tuesday. Something has to give soon and my money is on Trump and his advisors. But what do I know, I'm out tonight and I've already promised I'll be home by 11.

Fuel Oil Market (March 23)

The front crack opened at -12.00, weakening to -12.50, before strengthening to -12.45, closing -12.65. The Cal 19 was valued at -15.35.

Asia's prompt-month viscosity spread was unchanged on Monday, holding near a one-week high reached on Friday, amid tighter availability of blendstock supplies and steady demand for utility grades of the residual fuel.

The April viscosity spread, the price differential between March 180 cSt and 380 cSt fuel oil swaps, settled at $8.25 a tonne on Monday. Earlier in March, the front-month viscosity spread had risen to $8.50 a tonne, its highest levels since May.

Vitol has provisionally chartered the Olympic Leopard very large crude carrier for a $2.8 million fee to load fuel oil from Rotterdam around April 18 for discharge into Singapore around May 24.

Economic Data and Events

* 3pm: Richmond Fed Manf Index for March, est. 22 (prior 28)

* 3pm: U.S. Conf. Board Consumer Confidence for March, est. 131 (prior 130.8)

* 4pm: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic is interviewed at an economic policy conference in Atlanta

* 9:30pm: API issues weekly U.S. oil inventory report

Singapore 380 cSt

Apr18 - 372.00 / 374.00

May18 - 372.00 / 374.00

Jun18 - 371.50 / 373.50

Jul18 - 370.50 / 372.50

Aug18 - 369.00 / 371.00

Sep18 - 367.50 / 369.50

Q2-18 - 371.75 / 373.75

Q3-18 - 368.75 / 370.75

Q4-18 - 362.75 / 365.25

Q1-19 - 355.00 / 357.50

CAL19 - 326.50 / 330.50

CAL20 - 268.50 / 276.50

Singapore 180 cSt

Apr18 - 380.50 / 382.50

May18 - 380.00 / 382.00

Jun18 - 379.25 / 381.25

Jul18 - 378.00 / 380.00

Aug18 - 376.50 / 378.50

Sep18 - 375.25 / 377.25

Q2-18 - 379.75 / 381.75

Q3-18 - 376.75 / 378.75

Q4-18 - 370.75 / 373.25

Q1-19 - 363.50 / 366.00

CAL19 - 339.50 / 343.50

CAL20 - 292.50 / 300.50

Rotterdam Barges

Apr18 360.00 / 362.00

May18 360.50 / 362.50

Jun18 360.00 / 362.00

Jul18 358.50 / 360.50

Aug18 356.50 / 358.50

Sep18 353.50 / 355.50

Q2-18 360.00 / 362.00

Q3-18 356.00 / 358.00

Q4-18 346.25 / 348.75

Q1-19 338.75 / 341.25

CAL19 307.00 / 311.00

CAL20 245.00 / 253.00