---

Commentary

Brent closed up $2.05 to $69.47, WTI closed at $65.17, up $1.77. Francis Bacon once said: "If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end in doubts; but if he will be content to begin with doubts he shall end in certainties". Now I wouldn't say I live by this adage, but it certainly sums up my approach to the oil market. I do err on the side of cynicism when it comes to the oil market; there is a lot of waffle in news stories and the statements of major oil players. The OPEC cuts have been outweighed by the rise in US oil production, but as we saw yesterday with the EIA the market is still seeing drawdowns in stocks. This week, Brent has risen about $4.50 per bbl, close to 7%. Why? Well, there are many reasons I suppose that we can attribute: MBS trip to Washington, US fed increasing rates, Brexit, EIA drawdown. Nobody really knows what MBS and Trump have been talking about. Brexit honestly bores me to tears - I would rather rub chilis in my eyes than read another story about Brexit. EIA - well, perhaps that is something to jump on the bull train about, but imports were down last week and refinery runs were up. Fundamentally US production is soaring, and it is nullifying the OPEC cuts. So we are in a confusing situation with increased production, but still seeing stocks drain. I think the market will feel like a manatee trying to climb a greasy pole in the near term, it will try to climb a bit higher, but inevitably this is near topping out.

Fuel Oil Market (March 21)

The front crack opened at -11.75, strengthening to -11.55, before weakening to -11.25. The Cal 19 was valued at -14.90.

Asia's front-month high-sulphur fuel oil crack widened its discount to Brent crude on Wednesday, slipping to a near two-month low amid rising crude prices and firm supplies of the fuel in key storage hubs.

This came amid rising oil prices on Wednesday which were lifted by tensions in the Middle East and healthy demand. Fujairah fuel oil inventories inched up 0.5 percent to a nine week high of 7.389 million barrels (about 1.103 million tonnes) in the week to March 19.

Economic Data and Events

* 12:30pm: U.S. initial jobless claims SA for March 17, est. 225k (prior 226k)

* 12:30pm: U.S. continuing claims for March 10, est. 1870k (prior 1879k)

* 1pm: U.S. FHFA house price index for Jan., est. 04% (prior 0.3%)

* 1:45pm: U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI for March preliminary, est. 55.5 (prior 55.3)

* Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile data

* Russian refining maintenance schedule from ministry

* Offshore Technology Conference Asia, 3rd day of 4

Singapore 380 cSt

Apr18 - 370.50 / 372.50

May18 - 370.25 / 372.25

Jun18 - 369.75 / 371.75

Jul18 - 368.75 / 370.75

Aug18 - 367.50 / 369.50

Sep18 - 365.50 / 367.50

Q2-18 - 370.25 / 372.25

Q3-18 - 367.25 / 369.25

Q4-18 - 361.50 / 364.00

Q1-19 - 353.50 / 356.00

CAL19 - 323.75 / 327.75

CAL20 - 265.75 / 273.75

Singapore 180 cSt

Apr18 - 378.50 / 380.50

May18 - 378.00 / 380.00

Jun18 - 377.25 / 379.25

Jul18 - 376.25 / 378.25

Aug18 - 375.00 / 377.00

Sep18 - 373.00 / 375.00

Q2-18 - 378.00 / 380.00

Q3-18 - 375.00 / 377.00

Q4-18 - 369.50 / 372.00

Q1-19 - 362.00 / 364.50

CAL19 - 336.75 / 340.75

CAL20 - 289.75 / 297.75

Rotterdam Barges

Apr18 358.25 / 360.25

May18 358.50 / 360.50

Jun18 358.00 / 360.00

Jul18 356.75 / 358.75

Aug18 354.75 / 356.75

Sep18 352.25 / 354.25

Q2-18 358.25 / 360.25

Q3-18 354.50 / 356.50

Q4-18 345.50 / 348.00

Q1-19 338.00 / 340.50

CAL19 304.25 / 308.25

CAL20 246.25 / 254.25