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Commentary

Brent closed last night up 1.37 to 467.42, WTI closed at $63.40 up 1.34. Impressive - Brent is up close to 5% in a week. What's driving it, though? Well, I can only agree with everyone else that it has to be to do with MBS meeting Trump in Washington. Quite what they are discussing is unknown right now but that's not stopping the bulls from deciding the meeting is supportive for oil prices. What if there is a press conference and MBS and Trump just say: "Yeah we had a coffee, a good laugh and spoke business for a few hours", and if this diplomatic disagreement in the Middle East escalates, do expect the market to react. We may flirt with the $70's if API data is to be believed, but I don't think we will stay there - volatility is back! It's a bit unnerving at the minute - the world seems to be ticking along quite nicely, economies are up, demand looks okay, but I have to say that I don't particularly like it. I want some drama! I think what's happening is that after the 2008 financial crash and the 2014 oil price crash, people have put in mitigating factors to stop them from ever happening again; that goes for oil at least. Wild swings on the oil markets seem to be a thing of the past: it's either a slow death, which is then supported by an aggravated OPEC minister and up we go again, or it's a doomed rise, which is met with the term "glut". Stats later.

Fuel Oil Market (March 20)

The front crack opened at -11.15, strengthening to -10.95, before weakening to -11.50, closing at -11.45. The Cal 19 was valued at -14.80

Asia's 380 cSt cash differential rebounded on Tuesday from a one-year low touched in the previous session, as buying interest for physical cargoes of the fuel returned to the Singapore trading window. .

Ample supplies and aggressive supplier offers have weighed on market sentiment in recent weeks, but some industry participants expect improving demand fundamentals in April as well as tightening supplies stemming from scheduled refinery maintenance to support Asia's fuel oil market in the near to medium term

Western fuel oil arbitrage flows into Singapore are expected at about 4.5 million to 5 million tonnes in March and about 5 million tonnes in April, market sources said.

Economic Data and Events

* 11am: U.S. MBA mortgage applications for March 16 (prior 0.9%)

* 2pm: U.S. existing home sales for Feb., est. 5.40m (prior 5.38m)

* 2:30pm: EIA U.S. crude inventory report for Mar. 16, est. 3.25m bbl (prior 5.02m bbl)

* 6pm: FOMC rate decision

Singapore 380 cSt

Apr18 - 362.75 / 364.75

May18 - 362.50 / 364.50

Jun18 - 361.75 / 363.75

Jul18 - 360.75 / 362.75

Aug18 - 359.25 / 361.25

Sep18 - 357.25 / 359.25

Q2-18 - 362.25 / 364.25

Q3-18 - 358.75 / 360.75

Q4-18 - 352.25 / 354.75

Q1-19 - 344.00 / 346.50

CAL19 - 318.50 / 322.50

CAL20 - 254.50 / 262.50

Singapore 180 cSt

Apr18 - 370.50 / 372.50

May18 - 369.75 / 371.75

Jun18 - 369.50 / 371.50

Jul18 - 368.75 / 370.75

Aug18 - 367.50 / 369.50

Sep18 - 365.50 / 367.50

Q2-18 - 369.75 / 371.75

Q3-18 - 366.25 / 368.25

Q4-18 - 360.25 / 362.75

Q1-19 - 352.50 / 355.00

CAL19 - 331.75 / 335.75

CAL20 - 278.50 / 286.50

Rotterdam Barges

Apr18 351.00 / 353.00

May18 351.00 / 353.00

Jun18 350.00 / 352.00

Jul18 348.50 / 350.50

Aug18 346.75 / 348.75

Sep18 344.25 / 346.25

Q2-18 350.50 / 352.50

Q3-18 346.25 / 348.25

Q4-18 337.00 / 339.50

Q1-19 329.25 / 331.75

CAL19 299.00 / 303.00

CAL20 243.00 / 251.00