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Commentary

Brent closed down $0.16 to $66.05, WTI closed at $62.06 down $0.28. It is now time for me to bombard you with facts: U.S. crude oil exports in 2017 were nearly double those of 2016, and China accounted for 202,000 b/d (20 percent) of the 527,000 b/d total increase. U.S. crude was shipped to 37 destinations, compared with 27 in 2016. India, which did not receive U.S. crude oil exports in 2016, received 22,000 b/d in 2017, tying with Spain as the 10th-largest destination. U.S. crude oil exports grew to an average of 1.1 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2017. U.S. crude oil production reached 9.3 million b/d in 2017. Current US production is around 10.38mn b/d. And finally, Spot Brent crude oil prices averaged $3.36 per barrel more than WTI prices in 2017 compared with just $0.40/b more in 2016, providing a price incentive to export U.S. crude oil into the international market. Phew - I rest my case. But geopolitics is the fly in the ointment that has led to the collapse of my case in a more spectacular fashion than OJ Simpson. Have a good day.

Fuel Oil Market (March 19)

The front crack opened at -10.60, weakening to -10.85, before strengthening to -10.55, closing -10.85. The Cal 19 was valued at -14.55

Asia's 380 cSt cash differential slid into a wide discount on Monday amid an absence of willing buyers despite aggressive suppliers for cargoes of the fuel.

380 cSt fuel oil cash discounts fell to minus $1.17 a tonne to Singapore quotes on Monday, down from a premium of 5 cents on Friday and plus 17 cents a week ago.

The 380 cSt cash differential is now at its lowest since March 2017

Economic Data and Events

* 8:30pm: API issues weekly U.S. oil inventory report

* Bloomberg-compiled refinery snapshot for U.S. and Canada; gives offline capacity projections for crude units and FCCs

* Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman meets with President Donald Trump at the White House as part of U.S. visit

Singapore 380 cSt

Apr18 - 361.75 / 363.75

May18 - 361.50 / 363.50

Jun18 - 359.00 / 361.00

Jul18 - 359.50 / 361.50

Aug18 - 358.00 / 360.00

Sep18 - 356.00 / 358.00

Q2-18 - 361.25 / 363.25

Q3-18 - 357.75 / 359.75

Q4-18 - 351.25 / 353.75

Q1-19 - 343.00 / 345.50

CAL19 - 316.50 / 320.50

CAL20 - 253.50 / 261.50

Singapore 180 cSt

Apr18 - 369.00 / 371.00

May18 - 368.75 / 370.75

Jun18 - 368.50 / 370.50

Jul18 - 367.50 / 369.50

Aug18 - 366.25 / 368.25

Sep18 - 364.25 / 366.25

Q2-18 - 368.75 / 370.75

Q3-18 - 365.25 / 367.25

Q4-18 - 359.25 / 361.75

Q1-19 - 351.50 / 354.00

CAL19 - 329.75 / 333.75

CAL20 - 277.50 / 285.50

Rotterdam Barges

Apr18 349.75 / 351.75

May18 349.50 / 351.50

Jun18 348.50 / 350.50

Jul18 347.00 / 349.00

Aug18 345.25 / 347.25

Sep18 342.75 / 344.75

Q2-18 349.25 / 351.25

Q3-18 345.00 / 347.00

Q4-18 335.75 / 338.25

Q1-19 328.00 / 330.50

CAL19 297.00 / 301.00

CAL20 242.00 / 250.00