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Commentary

Brent closed down $1.45 last night to $64.34, WTI closed at $61.15, down $1.45. Another set of EIA data and another disappointment for the bulls. It should come as no surprise that crude stocks are building, US crude oil production is soaring and we're supposed to be in maintenance season. The market, however, tried to hang on with the same desperation as Stallone did to that girl in the start of that epic film Cliffhanger. Alas, he couldn't hang on and neither could crude - sinking as low to $63.80 at one point. We are, however, still flirting around this $65 number that I said a while ago would be the pivot point until everyone actually sees the wood for the trees and starts cashing in some length. Here's something interesting however from an excellent article in the Washington Post: 'During his 2006 'addicted to oil' State of the Union address, President George W. Bush bemoaned imports from unstable parts of the world and called for replacing 75 percent of Middle East oil imports by 2025. Well, in 2017, the U.S. imported approximately half as much oil from the Persian Gulf as it did in 2000; not too shabby. Overall, net imports accounted for 38 percent of U.S. consumption in November, down from 66 percent in 2007. The annual U.S. trade balance in fossil fuels improved by $233 billion as a result, according to the Wall Street Journal'. It is clear that the energy agenda in the USA has shifted substantially and I hope that other oil producing nations start to see this sooner rather than later because, without a shadow of doubt, all the US producers have got their tails up and are coming for market share.

Fuel Oil Market (March 7)

The front crack opened at -10.55, strengthening to -10.35, before weakening to -10.55. The Cal 19 was valued at -14.80

Ex-wharf premiums of Singapore 380-cst high-sulphur fuel oil continue to face pressure this week from seasonally sluggish demand for bunker fuels as well as competitive supplier offers as they battle for market share and seek to clear inventories to make room for incoming cargoes.

The 380 cSt fuel oil ex-wharf premiums have been assessed at below $1 this week with some deals being reported to have traded at a narrow discount to Singapore 380 cSt quotes.

Fujairah fuel oil inventories jumped 34 percent to four-week high 6.499 million barrels (about 0.97 million tonnes) in the week to March 5.

Economic Data and Events

* ~12pm: Russian refining maintenance schedule from ministry

* 12:30pm: U.S. Challenger job cuts y/y Feb., prior -2.8%

* 1:30pm: U.S. initial jobless claims, March 3, est. 220k, prior 210k

* 1:30pm: U.S. continuing claims, Feb. 24, est. 1919k, prior 1931k

* 2:45pm: U.S. Bloomberg consumer comfort March 4, prior 56.2

Singapore 380 cSt

Apr18 - 352.75 / 354.75

May18 - 352.00 / 354.00

Jun18 - 351.25 / 353.25

Jul18 - 349.75 / 351.75

Aug18 - 348.25 / 350.25

Sep 18 - 346.50 / 348.50

Q2-18 - 352.00 / 354.00

Q3-18 - 348.25 / 350.25

Q4-18 - 342.25 / 344.75

Q1-19 - 334.75 / 337.25

CAL19 - 307.25 / 311.25

CAL20 - 238.75 / 246.75

Singapore 180 cSt

Apr18 - 360.00 / 362.00

May18 - 359.25 / 361.25

Jun18 - 358.50 / 360.50

Jul18 - 357.25 / 359.25

Aug18 - 357.25 / 359.25

Sep 18 - 354.00 / 356.00

Q2-18 - 359.25 / 361.25

Q3-18 - 355.75 / 357.75

Q4-18 - 349.75 / 352.25

Q1-19 - 342.50 / 345.00

CAL19 - 319.25 / 323.25

CAL20 - 250.75 / 258.75

Rotterdam Barges

Apr18 340.25 / 342.25

May18 339.25 / 341.25

Jun18 338.00 / 340.00

Jul18 336.25 / 338.25

Aug18 334.25 / 336.25

Sep 18 - 331.50 / 333.50

Q2-18 339.25 / 341.25

Q3-18 334.25 / 336.25

Q4-18 324.75 / 327.25

Q1-19 317.25 / 319.75

CAL19 285.75 / 289.75

CAL20 225.75 / 233.75