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Commentary

Brent crude slipped $3 cents to $67.28 a barrel, after climbing almost 4 percent last week. U.S. WTI for April delivery was up $4 cents at $63.59 a barrel by 08:04 GMT after rising 3 percent last week. Now that everyone is back and recovered from their IP week, we can get back to the usual day-to-day business of the oil market. The seemingly bullish news of disruption to Libya exports has edged up the market, but other factors include a further increase in U.S. oil rigs and OPEC signalling that the way out of the cut agreement will be a staggered withdrawal from cuts. For Saudi Arabia, and the wider OPEC group, there is a conundrum they will have to deal with, and it is like a Rubik's cube, as they move one piece of the puzzle, Boom, the other pieces move too. They are hoping that they have the patience to learn their way through this snowstorm of pitfalls that could upset oil's recovery. Unlike some situations I have witnessed, people don't always work well under those conditions and it leads to a snapped 7 iron on the 12th hole on your local course. With the world economy recovering, Brent moving towards $70, U.S. rig counts fairly static, China and potential for India demand growth, now is not the time to blink for them.

Fuel Oil Market (February 23)

The front crack opened at -10.50, strengthening to -10.40, before weakening to -10.95. The Cal 19 was valued at -15.05.

Weaker fuel oil prices in northwest European amid rising stocks of the fuel in the ARA oil hub helped to push the front month East-West arbitrage spread to a one week high.

Fuel oil stocks in the ARA jumped 18 percent, or 157,000 tonnes, from the previous week to a four-week high of 1.012 million tonnes in the week ended Feb. 22, data from Dutch consultancy PJK International showed.

RA fuel oil inventories were 22 percent higher than a year ago and slightly above the five-year average of 982,000 tonnes for this time of the year.

Economic Data and Events

* 1:30pm: Bloomberg forecast of U.S. waterborne LPG exports

* 1:30pm: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, Jan.

* 3pm: U.S. New Home Sales, Jan.

* 3:30pm: U.S. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity, Feb.

* Bloomberg proprietary forecast of Cushing crude inventory change plus weekly analyst survey of crude, gasoline, distillates inventories before Wednesday EIA report

Singapore 380 cSt

Mar18 - 364.00 / 366.00

Apr18 - 363.75 / 365.75

May18 - 363.25 / 365.25

Jun18 - 362.50 / 364.50

Jul18 - 361.50 / 363.50

Aug18 - 360.25 / 362.25

Q2-18 - 363.00 / 365.00

Q3-18 - 359.75 / 361.75

Q4-18 - 354.25 / 356.75

Q1-19 - 346.00 / 348.50

CAL19 - 316.25 / 320.25

CAL20 - 237.25 / 245.25

Singapore 180 cSt

Mar18 - 371.25 / 373.25

Apr18 - 370.75 / 372.75

May18 - 370.25 / 372.25

Jun18 - 369.50 / 371.50

Jul18 - 368.50 / 370.50

Aug18 - 367.25 / 369.25

Q2-18 - 370.00 / 372.00

Q3-18 - 366.75 / 368.75

Q4-18 - 361.25 / 363.75

Q1-19 - 353.75 / 356.25

CAL19 - 325.50 / 329.50

CAL20 - 253.00 / 261.00

Rotterdam Barges

Mar18 351.50 / 353.50

Apr18 351.25 / 353.25

May18 350.25 / 352.25

Jun18 349.00 / 351.00

Jul18 347.50 / 349.50

Aug18 345.50 / 347.50

Q2-18 350.00 / 352.00

Q3-18 345.00 / 347.00

Q4-18 335.75 / 338.25

Q1-19 327.50 / 330.00

CAL19 293.25 / 297.25

CAL20 223.25 / 231.25