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By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services Ltd.

Brent closed down 2.81 last night to $53.11 and WTI closed at $50.28 down 2.86. Well, nobody can say that we didn't warn you. Crude was due for a correction and the Extremely Informative Administration didn't disappoint, did it? It wasn't so much that crude inventories rose 8.2mn bbls, or that crude stocks are at a record high, or that this is the 9th successive week crude inventories have risen. EIA raised its forecast on crude production for this year and next year as well. 300kbpd higher for this year to 9.21mnbpd and 200kbpd for next year to 9.73mnbpd. No matter what spin you put on it, that is a lot of crude oil. A lot. Once the market has shrugged off the relatively balanced data, when you take into account product stocks (sizeable draws on both), it actually read the report properly and down we went - rapido. And then we have ExxonMobil announce a $20bn USGC expansion which will create 45,000 jobs (45,000!!) and will mostly be used for "crude oil exports". So they are obviously planning for the future and for the US to be a sizeable crude exporter. Not a bad bit of broking there from Rex Tillerson as a leaving gift, is it? Most people leave with a carriage clock and faded photos - not old Rex, he leaves knowing 45,000 more people will have gumbo at night with extra crawfish. So what next? Well to be frank, in the short term at least, I don't really see what is going to keep this market propped up apart from some technical support levels. I think we will stay in a range, but I reckon it will be $52.50 - $55 for a while yet. At least we're out of that stubborn $55 - $57 range. Watch the headlines - it is inevitable that before the week is out that rumours of another cut or an extension to the current agreement will be forthcoming. Good day.

Economic Data/Events: (London times)

* 7:30am: Bank of France business sentiment indicator for Feb., est. 102 (prior 101)

* 8am: Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile data

* ~11am: Russian refining maintenance schedule from ministry

* 1:30pm: U.S. initial jobless claims for March 4, est. 238k (prior 223k); U.S. import price index by end use all y/y for Feb., est. 4.4% (prior 3.7%)

* Today:

* PJK's weekly ARA oil product stockpiles report

* Platts Asian Refining Summit, Singapore, 1st day of 2, including speakers from Total, BP, PTT, Shell, Petronas, Chevron, Gulf Petroleum, China Zhenhua, Shandong Chambroad, Reliance, Cosmo, Idemitsu

* IHS Markit's CERA Week conference, 4th day of 5, speakers include Shell CEO Ben van Beurden

Singapore 380 cSt

Apr17 - 304.25 / 306.25

May17 - 304.25 / 306.25

Jun17 - 303.25 / 305.25

Jul17 - 302.50 / 304.50

Aug17 - 301.75 / 303.75

Sep17 - 300.75 / 302.75

Q2-17 - 304.00 / 306.00

Q3-17 - 302.00 / 304.00

Q4-17 - 298.50 / 301.00

Q1-18 - 296.50 / 299.00

CAL18 - 294.75 / 298.25

CAL19 - 284.25 / 289.25

Singapore 180 cSt

Apr17 - 310.50 / 312.50

May17 - 311.00 / 313.00

Jun17 - 310.00 / 312.00

Jul17 - 309.50 / 311.50

Aug17 - 308.75 / 310.75

Sep17 - 308.00 / 310.00

Q2-17 - 310.50 / 312.50

Q3-17 - 309.00 / 311.00

Q4-17 - 305.75 / 308.25

Q1-18 - 303.75 / 306.25

CAL18 - 302.25 / 305.75

CAL19 - 293.00 / 298.00

Rotterdam Barges

Apr17 287.75 / 289.75

May17 288.00 / 290.00

Jun17 287.25 / 289.25

Jul17 286.50 / 288.50

Aug17 285.50 / 287.50

Sep17 284.50 / 286.50

Q2-17 287.75 / 289.75

Q3-17 285.75 / 287.75

Q4-17 281.50 / 284.00

Q1-18 280.75 / 283.25

CAL18 278.50 / 282.00

CAL19 269.00 / 274.00

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Founded in 2002, Freight Investor Services is a specialist in dry bulk and commodity derivatives, including cargo freight, iron ore, fertilizer and bunker fuel. The company has offices in London, Dubai, Singapore and Shanghai.

For further details about fuel oil swaps or to discuss trading opportunities, please contact Andrew Cullen, Client Relations & Development Manager, on +44 207 090 1126, or email AndrewC@freightinvestor.com.