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Oil prices ended a three-day bull run this morning, falling as a strong dollar made it more expensive to hold oil positions though losses were cushioned by Nigerian outages that have slashed output to the lowest in 22 years.

Market fundamentals as well as the technical constellation were slightly bullish Thursday morning. The EIA's bullish monthly energy report and the DOE's data on US oil inventories sent oil futures higher in the first half of the day, the more so as WTI had already tested its important resistance at 46.15 USD on Wednesday. The IEA's monthly energy report provided more bullish cues later Thursday morning. Oil futures thus extended their gains, with WTI hitting its highest level year-to-date in the early afternoon. Some investors took profit in the afternoon as they expected Canada's oil output to be resumed soon. Moreover, the economic data released in the USA fell short of expectations. Losses were limited, though, by further production losses in Nigeria. After our office hours, Shell reported an incident at one of its oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico due to which the installation was shut down. Consequently, oil prices recovered from the profit taking they had seen in the afternoon, ending the day with gains but below the highs they had posted earlier on Thursday.

ICE Gasoil contract for June delivery settled at 411.00 USD on Thursday, this was 3.00 USD below Wednesday's settlement. With some 99,000 deals, the traded volume (front month) was above average.

The slightly bullish technical constellation sent oil futures higher on Thursday. After WTI broke above its resistance at 46.15 USD oil prices gained more ground, approaching their 2016-highs posted at the end of April. The technical upward potential generated by the Stochastic indicator earlier this week is thus all but exhausted. As oil futures broke above their lateral trend, a fresh uptrend might develop. However, the technical slack might be limited by the 7-period moving average and Thursday's high today. So far, no new trend has developed and neither the Stochastic indicator, nor the RSI are giving any fresh cues. That is why we are currently assessing the technical constellation as neutral.

U.S.

Nymex above average: Oil futures remained nearly flat in Asia and in Globex electronic trading this morning, compared to the levels they had Thursday evening. However, they are trading clearly below Thursday's highs. The traded volume at NYMEX is above average this morning. Investors are waiting for the European financial and forex markets to open as well as for news on the recommissioning of oil installations in Canada. They are looking ahead to the release of some important economic indicators due today. Moreover, the OPEC will release its monthly energy report in the early afternoon.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 13-5)
380cst $208
180cst $311
MGO $427

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 13-5)
380cst $220
180cst $269
MGO $420

Singapore (delivered indications 13-5)

Brent is up -$0.04. Singapore paper is reflecting the same with -$2.40 for 180cst with -$2.80 for 380cst for May, and for June 180cst -$2.25 and 380cst with -$2.55 with MGO contracts May with -$0.64 and in June with -$0.64. The cargo market is following now with 180cst +$14.75, 380cst with +$13.89 and MGO with +$2.59.

380cst $224
180cst $228
MGO $415

Fujairah (delivered indications 13-5)

380cst $237
180cst $240
MGO $479

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $198
MGO 0.1%S: $378