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Oil futures fell on Thursday, with U.S. crude hitting its lowest price in more than two weeks as the country's crude stocks reached yet another record high, renewing concerns about global oversupply..

Oil futures tested their upside Wednesday morning despite the bearish technical constellation and market fundamentals. They were bolstered by the weaker dollar which had already lost ground Tuesday evening on Fed-Chief Janet Yellen's comments on monetary policy. The weakness of the greenback favoured investments in dollar-denominated oil, spurred demand from investors outside the USA. Oil futures thus rose surprisingly sharply ahead of the DOE's data on US oil inventories. They even climbed back above the 21-period moving averages. Near this level, technical buying fostered oil prices. Oil futures made up for Tuesday's losses but the DOE's report raised volatility. At first sight, the DOE's figures didn't provide any clear cues. However, they didn't justify further gains, which is why oil futures slumped at the time of the Gasoil settlement. Oil futures dropped back below the 21-period moving averages ending the day near fresh lows. Traders took profits from their long positions and so the bearish technical constellation and market fundamentals regained the upper hand.

ICE Gasoil contract for April delivery settled at 351.25 USD on Wednesday, this was 9.75 USD above Tuesday's settlement. With some 44,900 deals, the traded volume (front month) was on average.

The Stochastic indicator is bearish at the Brent and the WTI chart. It had already given off selling signals Wednesday morning. At the Gasoil chart the indicator is bullish, though. However, a bearish signal was generated at the Gasoil chart when the 7-period and the 21-period moving averages crossed. These lines might also cross at the Brent and the WTI chart. In this case, the bearish bias of the Stochastic indicator would be confirmed. Although oil futures briefly climbed back above the 21-period moving average on Wednesday, they settled below this mark for the second consecutive day. This generated more downside. That is why we are currently assessing the technical constellation as bearish. Moreover, oil futures might head for the lower Bollinger Bands.

U.S.

Nymex above average: Oil futures tended to the downside in Globex electronic trade this morning, weighed down by the bearish technical constellation. The traded volume at NYMEX is slightly above average this morning. Investors are now waiting for the European financial and forex markets to open as well as for the release of some economic indicators due today..

Forecast: Crude oil +3.5; Distillates -0.6; Gasoline -2.4 million barrels vs previous week.
DOE: Crude oil +2.6; Distillates -0.1; Gasoline -1.9 million barrels vs previous week.
API: Crude oil +2.6; Distillates -0.1; Gasoline -1.9 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 31-3)
380cst $155
180cst $270
MGO $356

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 31-3)
380cst $168
180cst $210
MGO $352

Singapore (delivered indications 31-3)

Brent is bullishh with -$0.77 for Apr contracts. Singapore paper is down with -$5.40 for 180cst with -$5.50 for 380cst for Apr, and for May 180cst -$5.50 and 380cst with -$5.00 with MGO contracts Apr with -$0.60 and in May with -$0.65.The cargo market is down with 180cst +$0.66, 380cst with +$1.89 and MGO with -$0.07.

380cst $179
180cst $185
MGO $334

Fujairah (delivered indications 31-3)

380cst $182
180cst $191
MGO $420

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $163
MGO 0.1%S: $333