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WTI oil prices bounced off a more than two-week low in European trade on Wednesday, amid speculation weekly supply data due later in the session will show U.S. crude inventories rose at a slower pace than expected last week.

Although the technical constellation was neutral Tuesday morning, crude oil futures tested their key supports near the 21-period moving average. Market fundamentals remained slightly bearish, the more so as there were hardly any news over the prolonged Easter-weekend and market players expect renewed builds in US crude oil inventories. Brent and WTI had already tested their supports Tuesday morning, breaking them sustainably. As expected, this generated more downward potential. Technical selling pressure increased and so oil futures continuously lost ground. In the course of the afternoon, news on Saudi-Arabia and Kuwait resuming production at a jointly operated oil field prompted investors to take some profits. In the evening, oil futures regained some ground as Fed-chief Janet Yellen defended the slower pace of rate hikes.

ICE Gasoil contract for April delivery settled at 341.50 USD on Tuesday, this was 10.50 USD below Monday's settlement. With some 56,700 deals, the traded volume (front month) was on average.

After having converged at the Brent and the WTI charts, the lines of the Stochastic indicator have meanwhile diverged again. However, the indicator has already given off a selling signal at the Brent chart. This might be confirmed at the WTI chart in the course of the day. Moreover, crude oil futures broke below the 21-period moving averages on Tuesday, generating more downward potential. Short-term downtrends have developed at ICE and NYMEX charts which is why the technical constellation can be assessed as neutral to bearish, the more so as the Stochastic indicator gave off a selling signal at the Brent chart. If oil futures settle below their 21-period moving average for a second consecutive day, they are likely to approach the lower Bollinger Bands in the coming days. If the 7-period and the 21-period moving averages cross or if the Stochastic indicator gives off a selling signal at the WTI chart, there would be more bearish cues. Meanwhile, market players might cover some of their short-positions. There is some slack for short-covering within the short-term downtrends and as long as oil futures stay below the 21-period moving averages.

U.S.

Nymex above average: After having tested their downside in early Globex electronic trade this morning, oil futures have meanwhile broken above short-term resistances. The traded volume at NYMEX is slightly above average this morning. Investors are now waiting for the European financial and forex markets to open as well as for the release of some economic indicators due today. Moreover, they are eying the release of the DOE's data on US oil inventories..

Forecast: Crude oil +3.5; Distillates -0.6; Gasoline -2.4 million barrels vs previous week.
DOE: Crude oil +2.6; Distillates -0.1; Gasoline -1.9 million barrels vs previous week..

Houston (ex-wharf indications 30-3)
380cst $157
180cst $272
MGO $364

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 30-3)
380cst $169
180cst $212
MGO $358

Singapore (delivered indications 30-3)

Brent is bullishh with +$0.02 for Apr contracts. Singapore paper is up with +$1.75 for 180cst with +$2.25 for 380cst for Apr, and for May 180cst +$2.00 and 380cst with +$1.20 with MGO contracts Apr with -$0.10 and in May with -$0.05.The cargo market is down with 180cst -$4.80, 380cst with -$7.11 and MGO with -$1.25.

380cst $180
180cst $185
MGO $335

Fujairah (delivered indications 30-3)

380cst $182
180cst $190
MGO $419

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $163
MGO 0.1%S: $332