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Oil steadied around its 2016 high this morning, supported by expectations of a production freeze by major exporters and dollar weakness that have pushed prices towards a fourth straight weekly gain.

Oil futures kept track of their rise Thursday morning, breaking above Wednesday's highs. From the technical perspective, this generated fresh upward potential. The buying signals of the Stochastic indicator confirmed the bullish bias of the technical constellation. The steadier Euro/Dollar as well as some bullish cues provided by market fundamentals (the FOMC's meeting results, the DOE's data on US oil inventories and the expected meeting of the OPEC and other producers in Doha) favoured a price increase. Brent broke above its important resistance at 41.00 USD, rising up to almost 41.50 USD. This resistance capped gains, though. The downward correction which followed in the early afternoon ran out of steam as well. The bullish factors regained the upper hand when reports said that some oil producers had already confirmed to take part in the meeting in Doha on April 17. Oil futures thus climbed back to their earlier highs in the course of the afternoon, ending the day with considerable gains.

ICE Gasoil contract for April delivery settled at 375.25 USD on Thursday, this was 10.00 USD above Wednesday's settlement. With some 61,600 deals, the traded volume (front month) was above average.

The buying signals of the Stochastic indicator translated into a price increase on Wednesday. Although the indicator is still bullish, Thursday's rise has spent some of the upward momentum it provided. The RSI has meanwhile turned bearish as it has dropped below 70%, contrasting the still slightly bullish Stochastic indicator. This morning, oil futures have already tested Thursday's highs. WTI has already broken above Thursday's high, generating fresh upward potential. Given the selling signal of the RSI, the technical constellation is no longer as clearly bullish as it was yesterday. That is why we assess it as neutral to bullish this morning. It remains to be seen whether oil futures at ICE are able to break above Thursday's highs in the course of the day or whether the bearish RSI gains the upper hand.

U.S.

Nymex above average: Oil futures tested Thursday's highs in electronic trading this morning. However, they have failed to break above these levels so far. The traded volume at NYMEX is above average this morning, with investors focusing on the contract with delivery in May. Investors are now waiting for the European financial and forex markets to open as well as for the release of the economic indicators due today. Besides, they will wait for news on a possible output freeze by OPEC and non-OPEC producers and the Baker Hughes rig count.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 18-3)
380cst $164
180cst $270
MGO $374

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 18-3)
380cst $171
180cst $215
MGO $362

Singapore (delivered indications 18-3)

Brent is bearish with +$0.29 for Apr contracts. Singapore paper is down with -$1.05 for 180cst with -$1.25 for 380cst for Mar, and for Apr 180cst -$0.805 and 380cst with -$1.25 with MGO contracts Apr with +$0.13 and in May with +$0.15.The cargo market is down with 180cst +$15.08, 380cst with +$15.15 and MGO with +$2.36.

380cst $183
180cst $188
MGO $348

Fujairah (delivered indications 18-3)

380cst $178
180cst $198
MGO $424

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $168
MGO 0.1%S: $353