Mon 14 Dec 2015, 12:25 GMT

Global Vision Market Report


Market report from Global Vision Bunkers B.V.



Oil prices fell for the seventh straight session this morning, amid lingering concerns a global supply glut may stick around for longer than anticipated.

Oil futures in London and New York were weighed down by bearish fundamentals on Friday morning. Moreover, the technical constellation was slightly bearish as well. The monthly energy reports released by the EIA and the OPEC earlier last week put oil futures under pressure - as did the builds in crude oil stockpiles in Cushing, Oklahoma, which had been reported by data provider Genscape. As to the technical constellation, there were no cues but when oil futures tested Thursday's lows early on Friday, more downside was indicated. The IEA's monthly energy report came in bearish, confirming the bearish tone of the EIA's and the OPEC's reports which had been released on Tuesday and Thursday. The IEA cautioned that stockpiles would continue increasing as demand would grow far more slowly next year than it did in 2015. Moreover, the lift of sanctions against Iran would boost supplies. Gasoil futures lost considerable ground on Friday, the more so as winter demand is still very weak as temperatures are higher than usual. At the same time, refineries are keeping throughput on a high level for the margins for gasoline productions are still very good. As to crude oil futures, Brent lost more ground than WTI. This was due to speculations over a lift of the export ban on US crude oil. Only when Baker Hughes released its rig count on Friday evening, reporting a sharp decline in active US oil rigs, that the price slump slowed down. Even so, the rig count didn't suffice to trigger counter-reaction. That is why oil prices eventually ended the day near their lows.

ICE Gasoil contract for January delivery settled at 343.25 USD on Friday, this is -21.75 USD below Thursday's settlement. With some 101,200 deals the traded volume (front month) was far above average.

Neither the Stochastic nor the RSI can give off bearish signals as they are moving in deeply oversold territory. That is why the indicators are neutral this morning. The trends at oil charts are still to the downside. So far there hasn't been any counter-reaction to Friday's losses. Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX are testing Friday's lows instead. This indicates more downward potential. If prices sustainably drop below Friday's lows, selling pressure at oil markets would increase and a technical sell-off might be triggered. An upward correction might be triggered however by buying signals from the Stochastic indicator and the RSI - in case oil futures edge higher. As long as there are no fresh cues, though, the technical constellation can be assessed as slightly bearish.

U.S.

Nymex is above average: Oil markets have showed hardly any moves in Asia and in electronic trade this morning. Oil futures have stayed in a narrow range near Friday's lows. The supports near these lows haven't been breached so far. Only the NYMEX Gasoline contract has gained ground. The traded volume at NYMEX is slightly above average this morning. Market participants are waiting for the European financial and forex markets to open today as well as for the release of the data on the Eurozone's industrial production.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 14-12)
380cst $160
180cst $229
MGO $411

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 14-12)
380cst $174
180cst $231
MGO $405

Singapore (delivered indications 14-12)

Brent is down with -$1.80 for December contracts. Singapore paper is down with -$8.75 for 180cst with -$8.75 for 380cst for Dec, and for Jan 180 cst -$8.75 and 380cst with -$9.50 with MGO contracts Dec with -$1.82 and in Jan with -$1.94.The cargo market is bearish with 180cst -$1.15, 380cst with +$1.30 and MGO with -$1.21.

380cst $176
180cst $196
MGO $366

Fujairah (delivered indications 14-12)

380cst $182
180cst $226
MGO $580

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $153
MGO 0.1%S: $306

MGO  

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