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Crude oil prices edged higher in Asia this morning as Fed signals that rates will stay on hold and moves afoot to trim output help.

After Tuesday's price rally and the consolidation that followed on Wednesday, when traders took profits, oil futures kicked off the day nearly unchanged on Thursday. Investors stayed on the sidelines, weighing the bullish factors which were generated in the past few days against the bearish ones. Gains at stock markets in China where the Shanghai Composite rose by approximately 3%, bolstered prices as well as the bullish monthly energy report released by the EIA on Tuesday. However, oil futures were particularly supported by the conflict in Syria, where Russia has meanwhile intervened. On Thursday, Russia extended its offensive against oppositional groups. Investors thus raised the geopolitical risk premium. However, upward potential was limited by the DOE's bearish data on US oil inventories released on Wednesday. Moreover, analysts at Goldman Sachs reiterated their bearish view on the market. Oil futures thus traded within a rather narrow range until the afternoon, only testing their upward potential again in the evening. When US stock markets surged after the release of the FOMC's meeting minutes, WTI broke above its resistance at 48.65 USD, triggering more technical stop-loss buying orders (short-covering). This made futures at ICE and NYMEX rally. WTI even briefly rose above 50 USD but failed to remain on this level. After the settlement in London, oil futures thus ended the day with considerable gains.

ICE Gasoil contract for October delivery settled at 480.75 USD on Thursday, this is -3.50 USD below Wednesday's settlement. With some 43,300 deals the traded volume (front month) was below average.

The Stochastic indicator and the RSI didn't give the selling signals the technical constellation had portended Thursday morning. This morning, WTI sustainably exceeded 50 dollars, triggering new buying orders. WTI has thus generated fresh upward potential, breaching yet another key resistance. However, the US crude oil sort has renewedly climbed far above the upper Bollinger Band. Since the contract settled above this line, investors might take some profits. Profit taking would increase if the RSI or the Stochastic indicator provide selling signals. Due to the fact that WTI rose above 50 USD this morning, we are currently assessing the technical constellation as slightly bullish, though.

U.S.

Nymex above average : When WTI broke above its key resistance at 50 USD this morning, oil futures surged. At the moment they are slightly pulling back from their highs, remaining on a high level, though. The traded volume at NYMEX is far above average this morning. Investors are now waiting for the European financial and forex markets to open and for the release of the economic indicators which are due today. They are also eying the Baker Hughes report on the number of active US oil rigs.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 9-10)
380cst $241
180cst $281
MGO $503

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 9-10)
380cst $250
180cst $301
MGO $488

Singapore (delivered indications 9-10)

Brent is gaining with +$1.42. Singapore paper gaining with +$2.75 for 180cst with +$3.50 for 380cst for Oct, and for Nov 180 cst +$3.75 and 380cst with +$3.50 with MGO contracts Oct climbing with +$0.93 and in Nov with +$0.95. The cargo market is losing with 180cst -$7.05, 380cst with -$6.16 and MGO with -$1.06.

380cst $253
180cst $268
MGO $469

Fujairah (delivered indications 9-10)

380cst $264
180cst $284
MGO $612

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $253
MGO 0.1%S: $463