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Oil prices fell this morning after Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) cut its crude forecasts, citing global over-supply and concerns over the health of the Chinese economy, and after Saudi Arabia dismissed the idea of an oil producer summit.

Despite the slightly bearish market fundamentals and the technical constellation, oil futures at ICE and NYMEX failed to seize their downward potential. After some tests of the upside and the change in the Gasoil front month, the Stochastic indicator even generated a buying signal. Oil futures gained ground even before the release of the DOE's data on US oil inventories, breaching several resistances. However, oil futures didn't only rise on technical cues. They were also fostered by renewed speculations over OPEC members trying to find support for their objective to regulate oil prices. Moreover, in the USA support rises for the idea of lifting the crude oil export ban. This buoys WTI prices, even though in the longer-term it is rather bearish. Although OPEC expects lower price levels for longer and the DOE's data came in bearish, oil futures gained some ground due to the technical buying signals. Moreover, US oil production decreased and so oil futures ended the day near their highs.

ICE Gasoil contract for October delivery settled at 477.00 USD on Thursday, this is ±0.00 USD compared to Wednesday's settlement. With some 111,800 deals the traded volume (front month) was far above average.

The lines of the Stochastic indicator crossed on Thursday and so the indicator generated buying signals. Since oil futures yesterday already spent part of the bullish potential that had developed, the technical constellation is only slightly bullish this morning, the more so, as short-term resistances are still limiting the rise. However, if oil futures break above their resistances at 48.90 USD Brent, 45.90 USD WTI or 481.00 USD Gasoil, new technical buying might trigger a considerable price increase.

U.S.

Nymex above average: Oil futures consolidated below today's key-resistances earlier this morning but have meanwhile lost some ground. The traded NYMEX volume is above average at this time of day. Market participants are waiting for the European financial and forex markets to open and for the economic indicators on the agenda today.

Forecast: Crude oil +1.0; Distillates +0.6; Gasoline -0.7 million barrels vs previous week.
DOE: Crude oil +2.6; Distillates +1.0; Gasoline +0.4. million barrels vs previous week.
API: Crude oil +2.1; Distillates +0.8; Gasoline +0.7 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 11-9)
380cst $234
180cst $343
MGO $503

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 11-9)
380cst $246
180cst $300
MGO $478

Singapore (delivered indications 10-9)

380cst $234
180cst $247
MGO $450

Fujairah (delivered indications 10-9)

380cst $243
180cst $264
MGO $589

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $223
MGO 0.1%S: $443