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WTI oil futures pushed higher this morning, amid speculation weekly supply data due later in the session will show U.S. crude inventories fell at a faster pace than expected last week.

On Tuesday morning, the technical constellation and market fundamentals had already indicated more downside at ICE and NYMEX and in the course of trade, oil futures actually retreated. The sharp decline in the euro/dollar - which was in part due to technical selling and in part due to the announcement that the ECB would step up bond buying in May and June - added to selling pressure with the common currency. The dollar profited from this and so, oil futures in London and New York became more expensive for investors outside the USA. This triggered a downward move that was limited at first by the strong supports at 600.00 USD Gasoil, 65,40 Dollar Brent and 58.75 USD WTI. Since the dollar extended its gains in the afternoon, these supports were breached, the more so, as Goldman Sachs renewedly stressed that a sharp downward correction of the April-price rally at oil markets was to be expected. Stop-loss orders were triggered and the technical factors became more bearish, when futures dropped below the MA21. The imminent expiry of the WTI front month added to volatility, prompting investors to cut their long positions. Even though there were no fundamental news on Tuesday, oil futures all settled near their intraday-lows, weighed down by the technical selling pressure. The API's bullish inventories data caused a light correction, however.

ICE Gasoil contract for June delivery settled at 593.25 USD on Tuesday, this is -15.50 USD below Monday's settlement. With some 65,100 deals the traded volume (front month) was above average.

After the stochastic had already given selling signal at the WTI chart, its lines also crossed at the Brent and the Gasoil-chart on Tuesday, confirming the selling signal that had only affected WTI until then. This added to selling pressure at oil markets. Moreover, futures broke below the MA7 and the MA21, generating additional downward potential. However, this morning the RSI has climbed back above 30%, providing bullish cues. New downtrends seem to develop at the Brent and the WTI chart. This trend would also provide enough slack for a light upward correction. New selling cues might be generated if the MA7 and the MA21 sustainably cross at the Brent-chart and/or oil futures break below Tuesday's lows. Since the RSI and the stochastic indicator are currently giving inhomogeneous signals, we consider the technical constellation neutral. If the RSI approaches 30% again, the indicator would turn neutral. In this case, the bearish factors would take the upper hand again.

U.S.

Nymex below average: Oil futures at ICE are already testing their Monday's lows while the lows at NYMEX are still strong. The traded volume at NYMEX is slightly below average at this time of the day. Market players are waiting for the European financial and the forex markets to open and for the FOMC's meeting minutes. There are but few economic indicators on the agenda today. Investors will also closely eye the DOE's data on US oil inventories which will be released this afternoon at 4.30

Forecast: Crude oil -1.1; Distillates +0.1; Gasoline +0.3 million barrels vs previous week.
API: Crude oil -5.2; Distillates +0.2; Gasoline -1.2 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 20-5)
380cst $350
180cst $469
MGO $660

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 20-5)
380cst $357
180cst $408
MGO $613

Singapore (delivered indications 20-5)

WTI is losing with -$0.53. Singapore paper is losing with -$3.25 for 180cst with -$3.25 for 380cst for Jun, and for Jul 180 cst -$2.85 and 380cst with -$2.50 with MGO contracts Jun losing with -$0.75 and in Jul with -$0.72. The cargo market is bearish with 180cst -$17.09, 380cst with -$14.85 and MGO with -$2.27.

380cst $358
180cst $381
MGO $576

Fujairah (delivered indications 19-5)

380cst $386
180cst $412
MGO $737

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $339
MGO 0.1%S: $582