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Market in Brief

Crude prices have been trading in $1 range the last three days trying to stabilize. Yesterday the November WTI contract slipped -$0.27 to $92.53/bbl and Brent inched up only +$0.05 to $97.00/bbl. The US weekly jobless claims reported slightly higher than previous figure while the August Durable Goods orders saw a decline of -18.2%. The US dollar strengthened again which continues to pressure the US dollar denominated crude futures. Oil production in Libya was reported to be at 925 kbpd- 2014 record- despite on going fighting between the various political factions for control. Today, we will see the US 2nd Quarter GDP revision and also the September Michigan Consumer Sentiment index. This morning, crude prices are trading slightly down.

Fuel oil Specifics

The NWE bunker fuel oil prices firmed yesterday mainly supported by tight product avails caused by arb to Asia and refinery maintenances. Delivered 380cst product both in Antwerp and Rotterdam gained up to $4.0/mt. The Singapore fuel oil prices rebounded by more than $3.5 during the Asain Platts window. The recent Singapore heavy residual inventory reported a build of +2.15 mbbl to 21.33 mbbl. The delivered bunker premiums slipped slightly to around +$8.5 above cargo prices. This morning both markets are trading slightly lower.

Forward Indications

Product	Oct	Nov	Dec	Q115	Q215	2015
NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month)	92,07	91,37	90,62	90,44	89,74	89,71
ICE Brent Swap (1st month)	96,99	97,59	98,48	99,07	99,61	98,89
ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month)	813,17	816,58	820,42	-	-	-
LS ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month)	-	-	-	838,56	847,97	850,22
3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm	532,75	528,75	527,50	533,75	537,50	537,75
3.5% Cargoes FOB Med	531,00	527,00	525,25	531,75	535,50	535,50
1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE	544,50	539,50	537,75	543,75	548,75	549,50
3% no. 6 USGC WB	84,00	83,47	83,20	84,55	84,95	85,04
380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore	557,75	554,00	552,75	554,75	557,00	558,25
0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm	812,25	816,25	819,25	-	-	-
Physical Rotterdam 380 CST	538,00	534,00	532,75	538,00	541,75	542,00
Physical Singapore 380 CST	563,00	559,25	558,00	560,00	562,25	563,50

Focus of the day: Piraeus This week was fairly busy in Piraeus. Cruisers are still calling the port and enquire large volumes of fuel and the spot market was active enough to keep barges busy. Crude was dropping for a second week, CIF MED 3.5% was lower by $ 5 and fuel prices are also declining. All physical suppliers in Piraeus are able to deliver anytime, even during the weekend. Weather is getting rough in the MED, but supplies in Piraeus roads will not be affected. Motoroil refinery has reported tight avails, but suppliers can still load from Hellenic Petroleum and the situation will be resolved early next week.

Economic fundamentals this week

Statistic	Importance	Date	Time	Period	Consensus	Last	Actual
Existing Home Sales	Medium	22-Sep	10:00 AM	Aug	5.0M	5.15M	5.05M
US Manufacturing PMI	High	23-Sep	9:45 AM	Sep	58	57.9	57.9
New Home Sales	High	24-Sep	10:00 AM	Aug	420K	412K	504K
Initial Claims	Medium	25-Sep	8:30 AM	20-sep	310K	280K	293K
Continuing Claims	Medium	25-Sep	8:30 AM	13-sep	2490K	2429K	2439K
Durable Orders	High	25-Sep	8:30 AM	Aug	-18.50%	22.60%	-18.2$
GDP- 3rd Estimate	High	26-Sep	8:30 AM	Q2	4.60%	4.20%	-
Michigan Sentiment	High	26-Sep	9:55 AM	Sep	84.6	84.6	-