---

Brent oil futures bounced off the lowest level in more than a year this morning, while WTI prices also firmed ahead of the release of U.S. weekly supply data.

After Friday evening's rise, oil futures retreated on Monday morning. Over the weekend, the tensions between Russia and Ukraine/USA/EU didn't exacerbate any further and in Iraq, the Kurdish troops made some progress against the IS-fighters thanks to the US air raids. Moreover, the state-run Libyan National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced that the country's oil production rose to 535,000 bpd. In the course of the morning, quotations at ICE and NYMEX breached first short-term supports. At first, Brent's key-support at 102.00 USD limited losses. After having taken a short breather, in the afternoon oil futures extended their losses, however. The NOC stated that Libya's output had even increased to 550,000 bpd. At the same time, Brent broke below its key-support at 102.00 USD and the lines of the stochastic indicator at the North Sea crude oil chart crossed giving a selling signal. This triggered technical selling orders that accelerated the decline. Thus, Gasoil dropped to its support at 853.00 USD in the early afternoon - a 14-month low.

ICE Gasoil contract for September delivery settled at 853.50 USD on Monday, this is -13.25 USD vs. Friday's settlement. With some 60,500 deals the traded volume (front month) was above average.

This morning, neither the stochastic indicator nor the RSI are giving any fresh cues at ICE charts. At the WTI chart, the stochastic indicator remains bullish but we continue to disregard this in our assessment as the US crude oil contract proved rather steady compared to the futures at ICE, with the September WTI front month contract expiring this Wednesday. Against this backdrop, the indicator seems to be skewed to the upside. The downtrends at ICE charts are still intact. Moreover, no bottom has built near Brent's key-support at 102.00 USD as the contract broke below this threshold. This generated more downward potential. Even though the selling signal the stochastic indicator had given at the Brent chart yesterday afternoon has been spent by now, we are still assessing the technical constellation as slightly bearish this morning as the downtrends at the Brent and the Gasoil chart are still intact and no bottom has built. Monday evening's decline might prompt investors to cover some of their short positions. This would buoy prices slowing down oil futures' downtrend.

U.S.

Nymex below avarage: After yesterday's price decline, oil futures saw a slight upward correction overnight. However, this was no sharp or sustainable rise. The traded volume at NYMEX is slightly below average for this time of day. Traders are now waiting for the development at stock and forex markets. They will also keep a close eye on the situation in Iraq, in the Ukraine and Libya and on the few indicators due today.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 19-8)
380cst $577
180cst $665
MGO $965

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 19-8)
380cst $582
180cst $684
MGO $956

Singapore (delivered indications 19-8)

WTI is losing with -$0.44. Singapore paper is down with -$0.85 for 180cst and -$0.35 for 380cst for Aug, and for Sep 180 cst -$0.75 and 380cst with -$1.55 with MGO contracts Aug losing with -$0.30 and in Sep losing with -$0.30. The cargo market is gaining with 180cst +$1.42, 380cst with +$1.24 and MGO gaining with +$0.16.

The Singapore fuel oil prices managed to rise app.$1.25 during the Asian Platts window. The delivered bunker premiums were seen around +$8.5 to +$9.5 above cargo prices.

380cst $585
180cst $597
MGO $860

Fujairah (delivered indications 19-8)

380cst $602
180cst $640
MGO $980

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $559
(1.0 %) : $569
180cst: $589
MGO 0.1%S: $ 843