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Crude oil prices gained in Asia Thursday as continued civil strife in Iraq keeps concerns of supply disruptions front and center.

The night from Tuesday to Wednesday, oil futures initially rose as the US Commerce Department had partly approved exports of ultra-light crude oil (condensates) for the first time in more than 40 years. Since this primarily has a bullish effect on quotations at NYMEX, whereas the effect on ICE futures is rather bearish, investors tended to take profits from Brent and Gasoil long positions in the course of the morning. Moreover, the API's bearish data on US oil inventories released Tuesday night and the selling signal the RSI gave at the ICE charts Wednesday morning weighed on oil futures. Thus, quotations increasingly tended to the downside, the more so as economic data out of the USA provided bearish cues. Selling pressure only waned near the supports at 113.20 USD Brent, 927.25 USD Gasoil respectively. In this phase market players were waiting for the release of the DOE's data on US oil inventories. The DOE's report came in bearish but less bearish than the API's figures had lead to expect. Therefore, the selling pressure didn't increase after the release of the data. Some market players thus took the opportunity to cover their short positions, the more so as the situation in Iraq is unlikely to improve anytime soon, with the Prime Minister having rejected a unity government. At last, oil futures at ICE pared most of their losses last night.

ICE Gasoil contract for July delivery settled at 928.75 USD on Wednesday, this is -7.25 USD above Tuesday's settlement. With some 35,900 deals, the traded volume (front month) was below average.

The stochastic indicator dropped below 50% at ICE charts. Thus, the indicator remains slightly bearish. However, the lines of the indicator are converging at the Gasoil chart, whereas they have already crossed at the WTI chart giving a formal buying signal. The RSI slid below 70% yesterday providing a selling signal that has already waned at the Brent chart as the indicator has climbed back above this marker. The indicator will only turn bearish again at the Brent chart if it renewedly falls below 70% sustainably. So, the technical indicators aren't homogenous this morning. That is why we assess the technical constellation as neutral for the time being. If the RSI drops back below 70% at the Brent chart, selling pressure might rise again but if the lines of the stochastic indicator cross at the Brent and/or the Gasoil chart, a test of the upside would be more likely.

U.S.

Nymex on avarage: After traders covered some short positions yesterday evening, the upward move at oil markets temporarily lost traction in early morning trade. At the moment oil futures are edging higher again. Only WTI is trading in a very narrow range. The traded volume at NYMEX is on average at this time of day. This Tuesday, investors will closely eye stock and forex markets and the development of the situation in Iraq and Ukraine. Market players are also looking ahead to today's economic data.

Forecasts: Crude oil -1.4; Distillates +1.1; Gasoline +1.5 million barrels vs previous week.
DOE: Crude oil +1.7; Distillates +1.2; Gasoline +0.7. million barrels vs previous week.
API: Crude oil +4.0; Distillates -0.3; Gasoline +2. million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 26-6)
380cst $616
180cst $689
MGO $1005

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 26-6)
380cst $622
180cst $668
MGO $1001

Singapore (delivered indications 26-6)

WTI is up with +$0.16. Singapore paper is down with -$1.50 for 180cst and -$0.80 for 380cst for Jul, and for Aug 180 cst -$1.50 and 380cst with -$1.80 with MGO contracts being bearish in Jul with -$0.22 and in Aug with -$0.19. The cargo market is bearish with 180cst -$0.01, 380cst with -$0.32 and MGO with +$0.21.

380cst $620
180cst $635
MGO $933

Fujairah (delivered indications 26-6)

380cst $622
180cst $645
MGO $988

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

380cst : $596
(1.0 %) : $630
180cst: $636
MGO 0.1%S: $895