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West Texas Intermediate oil rose this morning, as investors awaited the release of weekly supply data out of the U.S. later in the session to gauge the strength of oil demand from the world’s largest consumer.

Quotations at ICE and NYMEX showed a slightly softer tendency on Tuesday morning breaching first short-term supports. Futures' break below Monday's lows and the slightly bearish technical constellation favored some profit taking from long positions at that time of day. The supports at 917.50 USD (Gasoil) and at 112.15 USD (Brent) proved strong, however, limiting the downward move. Around noon, oil futures pulled back from their lows. In the course of the afternoon they surged on news regarding an explosion at a gaspipeline in Ukraine, a fire at a Russian refinery (near St Petersburg) and on the deteriorating situation in Irak. Oil prices thus more than pared earlier losses and so, the steady tendency predominated. Quotations thus settled with considerable gains. Only WTI retreated once again in evening trade as - with crude oil exports being prohibited in the USA - the US crude oil sort is less affected by the geopolitical risks and the problems regarding supplies in Europe. That is why the spread between Brent and WTI widened to more than 7 USD (August contracts).

ICE Gasoil contract for July delivery settled at 930.75 USD on Tuesday, this is +6.25 USD vs Monday's settlement. With some 63,500 deals, the traded volume (front month) was above average.

The technical selling signals the stochastic indicator gave at ICE and NYMEX charts yesterday, were spent relatively quickly yesterday morning. The RSI didn't give any confirming signal and given Tuesday afternoon's upward move at oil markets, the stochastic indicator at ICE charts turned neutral again. The indicator is only still slightly bearish at the WTI chart. According to the current situation, the constellation should be considered neutral from a merely technical point of view. If the lines of the stochastic indicator renewedly cross at the Brent and the Gasoil chart, the indicator would turn bearish again. The RSI would only give a selling signal, however, if it drops below 70%.

U.S.

Nymex above average: After having marked new highs yesterday evening, oil futures have slightly retreated in electronic trading this morning. However, futures have meanwhile bounced off their first supports breaching first resistances. The traded volume at NYMEX is above average at this time of day. Investors are now closely watching the opening of stock and forex markets and the development of the situation in Iraq. They will also keep an eye on the development of the gas dispute between Ukraine and Russia while looking ahead to today's economic indicators, and the DOE's data on US oil inventories.

API: Crude oil -5.7; Distillates +0.5; Gasoline ±0.0 million barrels vs previous week.
Forecasts: Crude oil -0.8; Distillates +0.4; Gasoline -0.6 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 18-6)
380cst $616
180cst $717
MGO $986

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 18-6)
380cst $620
180cst $698
MGO $988

Singapore (delivered indications 18-6)

WTI is up with +$0.67. Singapore paper is up with +$5.95 for 180cst and +$5.75 for 380cst for Jul, and for Aug 180 cst +$5.70 and 380cst with +$5.10 with MGO contracts being bullish in Jul with +$1.60 and in Aug with +$1.58. The cargo market is bearish with 180cst -$2.11, 380cst with -$2.69 and MGO with -$0.75.

The Singapore fuel oil prices were down around $2.5 during the Asian Platts window yesterday tracking the weaker crude values. The delivered bunker premiums were seen around $3.5 above cargo prices. Demand was said to be stable boosted by a lower outright prices.

380cst $612
180cst $631
MGO $922

Fujairah (delivered indications 18-6)

380cst $620
180cst $648
MGO $985

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

380cst : $593
(1.0 %) : $637
180cst: $633
MGO 0.1%S: $897