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Crude oil prices in Asia held mostly flat on Tuesday in subdued trade with Japan markets shut and the region gearing up for the May 1 holiday.

Market players stayed on the sidelines on Monday morning, rather tending to increase their long positions as the USA and the EU were to announce new sanctions. In the afternoon, these sanctions proved to be rather "soft", however. They were far less draconian than some US politicians had called for last week than investors had feared. Since, elsewhere in Libya, the minister of Justice had declared this weekend that the damages at the port of Zueitina had been repaired and exports might soon be resumed, a bearish tendency developed at oil markets yesterday afternoon. This tendency prevailed against the slightly bullish technical constellation which had influenced the market earlier on Monday. The stochastic indicator at ICE charts even turned from bullish to bearish in the afternoon favoring a considerable decline in prices at ICE. Late in the afternoon, National Oil Corp. lifted the state of Force Majeure on crude oil deliveries from the Libyan port in Zueitina. Thus, crude oil can be exported from now on. Moreover, Russia sent signs of de-escalation on Monday evening. The minister of Defense told his US counterpart that the manoeuvres near the border to Ukraine had been concluded and troops were withdrawing to their bases. Market players thus reduced the geopolitical risk premium, particularly at ICE. Futures in London settled with considerable losses, whilst WTI only slightly retreated as the US market is less dependent on Russia and Libya. So, the spread between WTI and Brent narrowed to about 7.40 USD.

ICE Gasoil contract for May delivery settled at 914.00 USD on Monday. This was -5.75 USD below Friday's settlement. With some 35,400 deals, the traded volume was below average.

The stochastic indicator turned from bullish to bearish at ICE charts yesterday afternoon. However, with the sharp decline at ICE yesterday afternoon most of the selling signal should have been spent already. Thus, the bearish effect of the stochastic is probably already waning. At the WTI chart, the stochastic indicator is still neutral. If its lines cross, it might give a buying signal. This might also be the case for the RSI at the US crude oil chart: if the indicator exceeds 30%, there will be a buying signal. Still, WTI might renewedly be buoyed today and tomorrow by spreadbets as the data on US oil inventories is - as usual - due on Wednesday. Therefore, we will focus rather on the signals at ICE charts than on those at the WTI charts in our technical assessment. Even though yesterday's losses have eased the selling pressure on Brent and Gasoil, the technical constellation can still be interpreted as slightly bearish, given the bearish stochastic indicator.

U.S.

Nymex below avarage: After yesterday's lows, oil markets are currently seeing a light counter reaction. However, there are no larger moves as there are no new cues yet. The traded volume at NYMEX is clearly below average at this time of day. Traders are monitoring the development at stock and forex markets. They will also keep an eye on today's economic indicators as well as at the developments in Ukraine and Libya.

Forecasts: Crude oil +1.1; Distillates -0.5; Gasoline -1.0 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 29-4)
380cst $607
180cst $675
MGO $998

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 29-4)
380cst $619
180cst $666
MGO $994

Singapore (delivered indications 29-4)

WTI is down with -$0.21. Singapore paper is down with -$5.75 for 180cst and -$5.50 for 380cst for May, and for Jun 180 cst -$6.60 and 380cst -$6.75 with MGO contracts being bearish May -$1.39 and Jun -$1.38. The cargo market dropped with 180 cst -$0.45, 380cst +$0.58 and MGO slightly down with -$0.27.

The Singapore fuel oil prices centered broadly around parity ranging between -$0.5 to +$0.5 during the Platts window. Delivered bunker premiums traded between $3.5 and $4.5 above cargo prices. Barges fell to $572.50 in the window and delivered prices fell -$6.0 to $574.50.

380cst $594
180cst $610
MGO $939

Fujairah (delivered indications 29-4)

380cst $602
180cst $642
MGO $982

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $575
(1.0 %) : $625
180cst: $615
MGO 0.1%S: $885