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Crude oil futures rose to the highest level in seven weeks this morning, after data showed that China’s economy grew slightly more than expected in the first quarter, while heightened geopolitical risk also underpinned prices.

After oil futures surged late Monday evening, futures at ICE consolidated on a high level on Tuesday morning. Gasoil as well as Brent had but little upward and downward potential as traders were waiting for news on the developments in Ukraine. Whilst the risk of an escalation between the Ukrainian government and pro-Russian separatists, resp. the West and Russia prevented sustainable profit taking at ICE, the US crude oil contract edged lower Tuesday morning. Market participants estimated that US crude oil inventories had renewedly risen last week. By raising their short positions in WTI and their long positions in Brent, they bet on a widening of the spread between the two crude oil sorts. In the afternoon, investors took profits from these spreadbets. At last this profit taking also lead to a steadier tendency for WTI and so the US crude oil sort gained considerable ground. Late in the evening and at night, oil futures extended their gains, when reports said that there were combats in the Ukraine. The anti-terror operation announced by the Ukrainian government seems to have started increasing the tensions and the geopolitical risk premium. At 10.30 p.m., the API released its data on US oil inventories. The report came in rather bearish but didn't lead to a sustainable decline in prices. Mixed data out of China, released early this morning, also failed to give markets a direction. After yesterday's highs, oil prices slightly retreated, however, this morning. In the early morning, they remained above yesterday's levels.

ICE Gasoil contract for May delivery settled at 917.75 USD on Tuesday. This was +7.75 USD above Monday's settlement. With some 61,300 deals, the traded volume of the front month was above average.

The stochastic indicator is still slightly bearish at the WTI chart after he gave a selling signal on Monday afternoon but like yesterday, we are focusing on the technical signals at the ICE charts in order to assess the situation. The stochastic indicator is neither giving new cues at the Gasoil nor at the Brent chart. Thus the indicator can be seen as neutral. However, the stochastic indicator might give a selling signal as well as a buying signal in the course of the day. If the black line surpasses the red line, there will be a buying signal. If the black line falls below the red line, there will be a selling signal. The RSI is still in overbought territory. However, it will only give a selling signal if it drops below 70%. Since there aren't any new decisive cues so far, we assess the technical constellation as neutral.

U.S.

Nymex on average: After yesterday's price surge, like Tuesday morning, investors took some profits in electronic trading this morning. The traded volume at NYMEX is slightly below average for this time of day. Investors are now monitoring the development at stock and forex markets. They will also keep an eye on today's economic indicators and on the situation in Libya and in Ukraine. They also await the DOE's data, due at 4.30 p.m.

API: Crude oil +7.6; Distillates -1.1; Gasoline -0.5 million barrels vs previous week.
Forecasts: Crude oil +1.5; Distillates +0.0; Gasoline -1.8 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 16-4)
380cst $598
180cst $681
MGO $985

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 16-4)
380cst $621
180cst $686
MGO $986

Singapore (delivered indications 16-4)

WTI rose with +$1.52. Singapore paper rose with +$0.50 for 180cst and +$0.00 for 380cst for Apr, and for May 180 cst +$0.15 and 380cst +$0.25 with MGO contracts being bullish Apr +$0.87 and May +$0.90. The cargo market dropped with 180 cst -$2.44, 380cst -$3.15 and MGO +$0.73.

380cst $595
180cst $612
MGO $928

Fujairah (delivered indications 16-4)

380cst $608
180cst $642
MGO $986

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $592
(1.0 %) : $644
180cst: $632
MGO 0.1%S: $894