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Crude oil futures fell this morning as speculators trimmed positions amid a weakening trend in Asian trade ahead of the weekly US stockpiles report.

At first, oil futures at ICE rose on Tuesday morning as the Crimean local government had declared its independence in order to legitimize the referendum scheduled on March 16. Brent and Gasoil climbed up to their key supports at 108.70 dollars, or 912.50 dollars, resp., which limited the upward potential within the current downtrends of these contracts. However, futures bounced from these resistances staying within their trends. Gasoil almost completely shed earlier gains whereas Brent consolidated on a slightly higher level supported by the political risks regarding Crimea and the uncertainty regarding Libya. In Libya prime minister Ali Zeidan was ousted after the tanker loading oil in the occupied port in Es Sider succeeded in escaping Libya's marine forces. In the course of the evening, WTI lost far more ground as the US crude oil sort is less susceptible to geopolitical risks than its European benchmark and as market players expect an oversupply of crude oil stocks in the USA during the seasonal maintenance work at refineries. After our submission deadline, the API released its report on US oil inventories. The figures came in slightly bearish for WTI but otherwise had no larger effects on oil prices. Moreover, the EIA released its monthly energy report. The agency slightly cut its global oil demand forecast but upwardly revised its price forecast.

ICE Gasoil contract for March delivery settled at 908.75 USD on Tuesday. This was +0.50 USD above Monday's settlement. With some 26,200 deals, the traded volume of the front month was below average.

With the selling signal at the WTI chart adding to pressure, the US crude oil sort yesterday evening marked a considerable decline. At ICE the technical indicators are still neutral, however, not confirming the selling signal at the WTI chart so far. Brent and Gasoil stay within their downtrends having but little upward potential given the strong resistance. From the merely technical perspective, the selling signal at the WTI chart makes the constellation turn neutral to bearish. Still, the selling signal has not been confirmed yet at ICE. If the resistance lines at ICE charts remain strong, there might be a test of the downside. A key-support for Brent is expected at 107.80 dollars. If this support is sustainably breached in the course of the day and if the lines of the stochastic indicator cross, technical selling pressure would rise. On the other hand, the situation might turn slightly bullish if futures break above their downtrends.

U.S.

Nymex bearish: Oil futures remained near yesterday's lows this morning. So far, futures failed to drop beneath these lows and so there was a light counter-reaction. But still, prices stayed near the lows they had marked yesterday evening. The traded volume at NYMEX is on average for this time of day. Traders are now monitoring the development at stock and forex markets waiting for today's economic data and the development of the situation in the Ukraine. They are also eying the API's data which is due tonight at 9.30 p.m..

Survey of US Petroleum inventories due out this afternoon at 16.30 (DOE)

API: Crude oil +2.6; Distillates -0.8; Gasoline -2.2 million barrels vs previous week.
DOE: due out tonight.
Forecasts: Crude oil +1.9; Distillates -0.5; Gasoline -2.0 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 12-3)
380cst $595
180cst $677
MGO $1002

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 12-3)
380cst $649
180cst $676
MGO $1007

Singapore (delivered indications 12-3)

WTI is bearish with -$2.25. Singapore paper is bearish with -$0.00 for 180cst and -$1.00 for 380cst for Mar, and for Apr 180 cst -$0.55 and 380cst -$0.75 with MGO contracts being bullish Mar -$0.70 and Apr -$0.58. The cargo market is bearish with 180 cst -$0.89, 380cst -$0.25 and MGO +$0.04.

The Singapore fuel oil prices dipped marginally, between -$1.0 to -$0.25, during the Asian Platts window yesterday tracking weaker crude price. The Asian fuel oil cracks strengthened as fuel oil values held on falling crude prices. The delivered bunker premiums were seen app. $4.5 above cargo prices. This morning both markets are trading slightly lower.

380cst $602
180cst $614
MGO $920

Fujairah (delivered indications 12-3)

380cst $609
180cst $640
MGO $985

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

A lot of 380 LSFO avails problems in whole of ARA. Most of the suppliers are only able to offer from 9th onwards.
Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $580
(1.0 %) : $651
180cst: $610
MGO 0.1%S: $868