---

Crude oil prices posted modest gain in Asian trade this morning supported by continued Western tension with Russia, the world's top oil producer, over the Crimean region of the Ukraine.

After Friday's late rise, oil futures edged lower on Monday morning. Investors cut strategic long positions they had raised ahead of the weekend, as the situation in Ukraine didn't exacerbate on Saturday and Sunday. Moreover, disappointing data regarding China's trade balance (released on Saturday) which showed that exports sharply declined in February have also weighed on oil futures. Oil futures thus broke below first supports but near the supports at 906.25 dollars Gasoil, 107.80 dollars Brent and 100.85 dollars WTI, selling pressure ebbed. Since - apart from the data out of China released at the weekend - no more important economic indicators were on the agenda yesterday, quotations stayed weaker until the evening settling near their lows. In the course of the evening, there was a short but significant rise at oil markets. This was said to have been due to a gunfight between the Libyan marine forces and insurgents at the port Es Sider. Since the situation didn't escalate, the price surge didn't sustain.

ICE Gasoil contract for March delivery settled at 908.25 USD on Monday. This was -6.25 USD below Friday's settlement. With some 31,000 deals, the traded volume was below average.

The buying signals of the stochastic indicator didn't show any larger impact yesterday and so the waned this morning. The lines of the indicator are converging. At the WTI chart, they have even met. That is why the indicator can be regarded as neutral again. The downtrends oil futures at ICE had briefly tried to breach last week limited the technical downward potential and are setting the course today. Even though the trends of Brent and Gasoil are down trends, they provide some slack up as well as down. Since new cues are lacking, the technical situation can be seen as neutral.

U.S.

Nymex bearish: Oil futures remained near yesterday's lows this morning. So far, futures failed to drop beneath these lows and so there was a light counter-reaction. But still, prices stayed near the lows they had marked yesterday evening. The traded volume at NYMEX is on average for this time of day. Traders are now monitoring the development at stock and forex markets waiting for today's economic data and the development of the situation in the Ukraine. They are also eying the API's data which is due tonight at 9.30 p.m..

Forecasts: Crude oil +1.9; Distillates -0.5; Gasoline -2.0 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 11-3)
380cst $697
180cst $677
MGO $1003

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 11-3)
380cst $654
180cst $678
MGO $1009

Singapore (delivered indications 11-3)

WTI is bearish with -$0.06. Singapore paper is bearish with -$1.25 for 180cst and -$0.40 for 380cst for Mar, and for Apr 180 cst -$1.00 and 380cst -$1.00 with MGO contracts being bullish Mar +$0.07 and Apr +$0.06. The cargo market is bullish with 180 cst +$0.09, 380cst +$1.17 and MGO +$0.07.

The Singapore fuel oil market rose marginally between flat to +$1.0 during the Asian Platts window yesterday. The delivered bunker premiums softened to between +$2.5 to $3.5 above cargo prices. This morning both markets are trading slightly higher.

380cst $600
180cst $612
MGO $922

Fujairah (delivered indications 11-3)

380cst0 $608
180cst $640
MGO $982

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

A lot of 380 LSFO avails problems in whole of ARA. Most of the suppliers are only able to offer from 9th onwards.
Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $579
(1.0 %) : $649
180cst: $609
MGO 0.1%S: $866