Fri 7 Mar 2014, 12:42 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Crude oil futures were higher during early European trading hours on this morning, as the release of upbeat U.S. jobless claims data continued to support and as markets awaited a highly anticipated U.S. nonfarm payrolls report later in the trading session.

Traders reacted on Tuesday's and Wednesday's sharp losses with covering their short positions on Thursday morning. Since the situation regarding Ukraine seemed to calm down, market participants expected a seasonal decline of crude oil demand and the technical constellation remained bearish, oil futures soon tended to the downside again, however. After prices had sunk below Wednesday's lows, selling pressure renewedly increased in the early afternoon. Then, the euro that soared during the ECB's press conference limited losses, however. The European central bankers' positive view on inflation and growth sent the euro far above 1.38 USD. This cheapened dollar-denominated oil for investors in the Eurozone, who thus raised their buying orders and so oil futures pulled back from their lows. The mixed economic data out of the USA failed to give oil markets or the euro/dollar-parity a new direction. After Vladimir Putin's de-escalating comments and two rather calm days in Ukraine, the situation renewedly exacerbated as Russia and the USA threatened sanctions and military action on Wednesday evening. This buoyed oil prices late in the evening making them rise also overnight. Therefore, losses have meanwhile been retraced.

ICE Gasoil contract for March delivery settled at 904.75 USD on Thursday. This was -7.00 USD below Wednesday's settlement. With some 26.900 deals, the traded volume was below average.

The selling signals of the stochastic indicator have been spent by now. Therefore, they no longer have any impact on oil markets. The lines of the indicator are converging and so the stochastic can be seen as neutral again. Futures re-entered their downtrends after having temporarily exceeded them on Monday against the backdrop of market fundamentals. Still, these trends leave some slack for upward moves or short covering. From a merely technical point of view, we regard the situation as neutral this morning, as there are no new technical cues.

U.S.

Nymex cooling: Futures at ICE and NYMEX slightly pulled back from yesterday's lows this morning. However, the rise has been limited so far by first resistances. The traded volume at NYMEX is on average for this time of day. Traders are now monitoring the development at stock and forex markets waiting for today's economic data and the development of the situation in the Ukraine.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 7-3)
380cst $601
180cst $682
MGO $1018

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 7-3)
380cst $653
180cst $677
MGO $1028

Singapore (delivered indications 7-3)

WTI is bullish with +$0.63. Singapore paper is bullish with +$2.00 for 180cst and +$1.90 for 380cst for Mar, and for Apr 180 cst +$2.75 and 380cst +$2.75 with MGO contracts being bearish Mar -$0.10 and Apr -$0.01. The cargo market is bearish with 180 cst -$2.02, 380cst -$3.34 and MGO -$1.53.

Singapore's onshore fuel oil stocks declined 10% on week to a more-than-one-month low of 17.23mbbl (2.71 million tonnes), latest data from trade agency IE Singapore showed on Thursday. This morning both markets are trading slightly higher.

380cst $604
180cst $613
MGO $925

Fujairah (delivered indications 7-3)

380cst0 $603
180cst $635
MGO $985

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

A lot of 380 LSFO avails problems in whole of ARA. Most of the suppliers are only able to offer from 9th onwards.
Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $578
(1.0 %) : $645
180cst: $608
MGO 0.1%S: $863

MGO  

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