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Crude oil futures in New York fell in early Asia trade this morning following China's fourth quarter GDP and December industrial production and retail sales data that showed a slightly weaker than expected trend. Better-than-expected data on U.S. housing starts sent oil prices higher on Friday after investors viewed the numbers as another indication of a more robust U.S. economy, one that will demand more fuel and energy going forward.

On Friday morning, oil futures showed a steadier tendency testing their upward potential after Thursday's losses. When prices climbed above Thursday's highs, technical buying pressure renewedly increased sending oil futures - particularly those at ICE - even higher. The positive economic outlook (World Bank and IMF), that also pushed equities to new record highs, obviously prompted investors to cut their short position ahead of the prolonged weekend in the USA where Martin Luther King Jr. Day is celebrated today. Since NYMEX floor trading is going to remain closed today, investors chiefly consolidated their riskier positions on Friday afternoon in order to avoid being caught on the wrong foot tomorrow. On Wednesday and Thursday, WTI proved far steadier than Brent given the DOE's report on US oil inventories. This trend turned around, however, when traders consolidated their positions. The US crude oil contract thus remained comparatively weak on Friday. Whilst Brent and Gasoil settled with considerable gains late Friday evening, WTI traded nearly unchanged compared to the level it had at the beginning of trading, despite having marked a high around noon.

ICE Gasoil contract for February delivery settled at 916.25 USD on Friday. This was +8.75 USD above Thursday's settlement. With some 60,000 deals, the traded volume was above average.

The RSI is still neutral this morning and there is no chance of the indicator giving any new signal today. The situation is slightly different for the stochastic indicator, which is currently neutral also - both at ICE and NYMEX. However, this indicator might give a selling signal if its lines cross at the WTI or the Gasoil chart. This might generate technical profit taking. According to the current constellation, we still assess the technical situation as neutral at the moment.

U.S.

Nymex neutral: Even though oil futures at ICE saw but little movement in Asian trading this morning, WTI slightly retreated. According to analysts, this is due to disappointing economic data out of China which are weighing on sentiment. The traded volume at NYMEX is slightly below average for this time of day. Investors are now eying the development at stock markets waiting for new cues from forex markets. They will also keep monitoring the situation in Libya, Iraq and South Sudan. As to economic data, today there is only the German producer price index on the agenda, see economic calendar.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 20-1)
380cst $578
180cst $649
MGO $961

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 20-1)
380cst $590
180cst $654
MGO $988

Singapore

WTI is cooling slightly, still dropping with -$0.48. Singapore paper is on its bearish track with -$2.85 for 180cst and -$1.75 for 380cst for Feb, and for Mar 180 cst -$1.70 and 380cst -$2.10 with MGO contracts Feb +$0.30 and Mar +$0.29. The cargo market is more bullish with 180 cst +$1.98, 380cst +3.14 and MGO -$0.11.

The Singapore fuel oil markets closed last week moving higher by +$2.0 during the Asian Platts window. The delivered bunker premiums rose higher to between +$7.0 to +$8.0 above cargo prices. This morning both markets are trading lower.

380cst $600
180cst $615
MGO $897

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $561
(1.0 %) : $591
180cst: $591
MGO 0.1%S: $ 875