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Oil prices advanced this morning heading for its first weekly gains since late December after gaining support from a deeper-than-expected draw in US stockpiles. The EIA report on Wednesday showed that crude inventories fell to the lowest since March 2012 in the US. Crude inventories slid by 7.66 million barrels to 350.2 million last week. Gasoline stockpiles increased 6.18 million barrels last week while distillate supplies, including heating oil and diesel, declined 1.02 million barrels, said the EIA.

After Wednesday's bullish data on US oil inventories market players tended to stay on the sidelines on Thursday morning. Investors wonder in how far the massive draw in crude oil stockpiles had been a single phenomenon caused by the bad weather conditions. The bullish crude oil stocks have showed some repercussions on Brent and WTI futures whereas product prices, particularly the price of NYMEX gasoline, rather tended to the downside. Late in the evening, the February Brent contract expired - a fact that had also lead to caution among market players. After the change to the March Brent contract on Thursday at 20.30 p.m., Brent slightly retreated marking new lows at night. Yesterday afternoon, the OPEC released its monthly energy report (January) which can be considered as slightly bearish as forecasts for OPEC oil demand in 2014 have been downwardly revised. US economic data released Thursday afternoon largely matched expectations failing to give oil markets a new direction. Therefore, oil futures tested both their up- and downward potential but settled hardly changed.

ICE Gasoil contract for February delivery settled at 907.50 USD on Thursday. This was -6.25 USD below Wednesday's settlement. With some 74,100 deals, the traded volume was far above average.

OPEC: According to the OPEC's latest monthly energy report, the organisation has left its global oil demand growth forecast for 2013 and 2014 nearly unchanged. The OPEC’s oil output dropped by -20,000 bpd in December amounting to 29,44 mbpd in that month. The demand for OPEC oil is seen at 29.9 mbpd in 2013 - unchanged to the preceeding estimate. Since the oil production of countries that don't belong to the OPEC is to increase more quickly than global oil demand in 2014, the OPEC's share in global oil supplies is likely to further decrease.

The technical situation brings no new cues this morning. Even though the stochastic indicator generated a buying signal at the Brent chart, the signal is skewed by the fact that investors "rolled" their risk positions over to the new front month contract with March delivery, as the February Brent contract expired yesterday. Thus, in our view, neither the stochastic indicator, nor the RSI currently give new cues. Whilst Brent stays within its down trend, which formed at the beginning of January, WTI and Gasoil exceeded their down trend in the past few days. However, this hasn't generated any new trend yet. Therefore, we assess the technical constellation as neutral this morning.

U.S.

Nymex neutral: Oil prices remained in a rather narrow range in Asian trading this morning as fresh cues were lacking. The traded volume at NYMEX is slightly below average for this time of day. Market players are now closely looking ahead to the development at stock markets waiting also for new cues from forex markets. They will also keep monitoring the situation in Libya, Iraq and South Sudan, as well as important economic data.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 17-1)
380cst $577
180cst $648
MGO $965

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 17-1)

380cst $589
180cst $653
MGO $992

Singapore

WTI is cooling slightly, still gaining with +$0.27. Singapore paper remains on its bullish track with +$2.40 for 180cst and +$1.60 for 380cst for Feb, and for Mar 180 cst +$2.75 and 380cst +$2.35 with MGO contracts Feb +$0.16 and Mar +$0.13. The cargo market is mixed with 180 cst -$4.37, 380cst -$1.35 and MGO -$0.35.

The latest Singapore heavy residual inventory showed a slight draw of -0.68 mbbl to 19.97 mbbl. The delivered bunker premiums ranged between $5.0 and $7.5 above cargo prices yesterday. This morning the markets are trading higher.

380cst $600
180cst $615
MGO $897

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $561
(1.0 %) : $591
180cst: $591
MGO 0.1%S: $ 872