Fri 10 Jan 2014, 12:31 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Brent crude-oil futures ticked higher in London Friday, boosted by strong Chinese demand data, but the trend remains to the downside with both Brent and WTI having settled Thursday at multi-month lows. Brent crude for February delivery rose 33 cents to $106.72 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. U.S. crude-oil futures were 80 cents, or 0.9%, higher at $92.76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Against the backdrop of the DOE's bearish data on US oil inventories (released Wednesday afternoon), oil futures initially consolidated in a relatively narrow range on Thursday. In the early afternoon ICE futures increasingly tested their upward potential bolstered by the slightly bullish technical constellation, by the remaining geopolitical risks and a temporary shut down of production at the Buzzard oil field in the North Sea. The spread between Brent and WTI widened to more than 15 dollars at that time. In the course of the afternoon the bearish factors gained the upper hand, however. The downward correction at oil markets was chiefly due to the repercussions of the DOE's data on US oil stockpiles, which were considered "clearly bearish" by analysts. Since the outage at the Buzzard oil field only lasted a couple of hours and the situation in Libya, Iraq and South Sudan didn't deteriorate (at least regarding oil output and exports), the impact of the DOE's figures prevailed. Positive economic indicators out of the USA had neither a clearly bearish nor a clearly bullish impact on oil markets as market players were already focussing on the official US jobs data for December due this afternoon. Eventually, the bearish fundamentals regained the upper hand at oil markets yesterday and so futures kept track of their downtrends settling near their intraday lows.

ICE Gasoil contract for January delivery settled at 907.25 USD on Thursday. This was -5.00 USD below Wednesday's settlement. With some 30,300 deals the traded volume (of the front month) was below average.

The lines of the stochastic indicator have converged again at the Gasoil charts but haven't met yet. At the Brent chart, the lines of the indicator are no longer drifting apart either and so the indicator is currently seen as neutral at the ICE charts. At the WTI chart, there has been a buying signal but this might be skewed by spreadbets and WTI's late rise (yesterday). The RSI still doesn't give any new cues. The index is still in oversold territory but will only give a fresh signal if it surpasses 30%. From a merely technical perspective, we thus assess the situation as neutral this morning. The sharp decline ICE futures saw until yesterday evening might favor some short-covering, though. This way, investors might try to cut their riskier assets ahead of the weekend and the release of the US jobs date due this afternoon.

U.S.

Nymex gaining: Along with some short covering, the on-month rise in China's crude oil imports slightly buoys oil futures in electronic trading this morning. The traded volume at NYMEX is on average for this time of day. Market players are now closely eying the development at stock markets waiting also for new cues from forex markets as well as from today's economic indicators, particularly from the official US jobs data. They will also keep an eye on the situation in Libya and Iraq.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 08-1)
380cst $590
180cst $668
MGO $987

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 08-1)
380cst $610
180cst $656
MGO $1001

Singapore

WTI is neutral +$0.06. Singapore paper is gaining with +$2.75 for 180cst and +$1.50 for 380cst for Jan, and for Feb 180 cst +$2.25 and 380cst +$2.50 with MGO contracts Jan -$0.15 and Feb -$0.25. The cargo market is bullish with 180 cst -$1.44, 380cst -$2.32 and MGO -$0.31.

Singapore 180cst product gained up to $3.5/mt in the front while backend remained largely unchanged. Visco spreads gained back some strength at the front with spot closing at $8.88/mt yesterday. February is trading at app.$9.75-10.0 while forward prices remain stable trading in a range of $7.5-8.00/mt for cal14. This morning markets are trading slightly higher.

380cst $603
180cst $612
MGO $905

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $566
(1.0 %) : $596
180cst: $596
MGO 0.1%S: $ 892

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