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Brent crude oil climbed towards $110 a barrel on Monday after Chinese data showed strong industrial activity and as social and political unrest in Libya limited supply from the key North African producer. Manufacturing growth in China, the world's biggest crude oil importer, stayed at 18-month highs in November due to robust domestic and foreign demand, the official Purchasing Managers' Index showed. Oil exports from Libya are only around 130,000 barrels per day (bpd). Brent crude for January was up 20 cents to $109.89 a barrel by 0925 GMT, after finishing down $1.17 in the previous session. U.S. crude was up 15 cents at $92.87 a barrel, after settling 42 cents higher on Friday.

ICE Gasoil contract for December delivery settled at 943.00 USD on Friday. This was 1.00 USD above Thursday's settlement. With some 26,200 deals, the traded volume was far below average.

Trading at oil markets was expected to be thin on Friday after an already calm session on Thursday (US holiday). Oil futures at ICE were slightly weighed down by reports on negotiations with Libyan oil workers. However, the bearish impact of these reports will remain subdued as long as there is no definite breakthrough in the talks. Brent and Gasoil briefly tried to break below their short-term uptrends on Friday morning but as they failed to do so, quotations consolidated sideways on a high level. Unlike at the beginning of the week, WTI proved slightly steadier on Friday whereas upward potential at ICE remained limited. This was due to profit taking from spreadbets. Market players cut their long positions in product and ICE futures and reduced their short positions in WTI. Late in the afternoon, this lead to wider oscillations at both NYMEX and ICE. However, these oscillations merely resulted from technical cues and from profit taking from spreadbets. Since the traded volumes were on a very low level after the Thanksgiving holiday in the USA (on Thursday), volatility at oil markets was higher than usual and so oil prices were more susceptible to price surges or declines than it is generally the case. Late in the evening, oil futures at ICE finished significantly lower, whereas WTI marked some gains.

The lines of the stochastic indicator have crossed at ICE charts continuing to diverge. Thus the indicator is still bearish this morning pointing to further tests of the downward potential, the more so as short-term supports were breached on Friday. At the WTI chart, the stochastic indicator is bullish. However, we eclipse this cue from our assessment as the WTI is currently taking a particular position. The RSI hovers above 70% at the Brent as well as at the Gasoil chart. It might add to selling pressure if this indicator falls below the 70%-threshold. Adjustments and profit taking from spreadbets might have somewhat skewed the stochastic indicator and so, its selling signal may already have been spent by Friday's price decline. If oil futures fall below Friday's lows, however, and if the RSI confirms the selling signal, it might lead to more downward corrections. We thus assess the technical constellation as neutral to bearish at ICE.

U.S.

Nymex neutral: After ICE futures saw some profit taking late Friday evening, quotations have regained some ground in electronic trading this morning buoyed by the positive purchasing manager indeces out of China. The traded NYMEX volume is above average for this time of day. Market players are now eying the development at European markets, new signals from forex trading and cues from today's economic indicators out of Europe and the USA.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 29-11)
380cst $610
180cst $637
MGO $982

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 29-11)
380cst $614
180cst $649
MGO $988

Singapore

Crude is neutral with WTI +0.67. Singapore paper is bearish with -$1.75 for 180cst and -$2.25 for 380cst for Dec, and for Jan 180 cst -$2.00 and 380cst -$2.25 with MGO contracts Dec +$0.32 and Jan +$0.30. The cargo market is bearish with 180 cst -$1.59 380cst -$1.69 and MGO -$0.24.

380cst $601
180cst $606
MGO $945

Fujairah (delivered indications 02-12)

380cst $619
180cst $665
MGO $1025

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

A lot of operational problems in both Rotterdam and Antwerp. Many suppliers only possible to offer from 06/12 onwards for 380 lsfo.

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $582
(1.0 %) till 06/12 :$660
(1.0 %) from 6th onwards: $635
180cst: $622
MGO 0.1%S: $ 899