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Market in Brief

On Friday crude prices closed sharply higher after the October US Non Farm Payroll (new jobs created) surprisingly jumped to 204k. The much better than expected US economic data boosted market expectation that the US Federal Reserve may reduce their Bond Buying program as soon as December. Some Oil supporting news came during the weekend. Firstly, talks between Iran and six world powers ended without an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program, they will meet again on the 20th November. Secondly, Saudi Arabia cut its output in October from 10,1mio bpd to 9,75 mbpd and finally disruptions in Libya are far from over. The December WTI oil contract closed at $94.60/bbl, up +$0.40 and Brent jumped +$1.66, to settle at $105.12/bbl. This morning, crude prices are trading slightly higher for Brent (+0,30%) and WTI slightly lower (-0,36%).

Fueloil Specifics

The Northwest European bunker fuel oil markets closed higher last Friday following general market trend. Delivered 380cst product in Rotterdam and Antwerp was assessed some $3-4/mt up versus previous close. Suppliers reported increased buying interest in the afternoon however product avails remained tight. Singapore fuel oil markets fell app. $2.25 during the Asian Platts window last Friday following the weaker crude values. The Singapore heavy residual inventory reported a draw of -2.26 mbbl to 16.92 mbbl. The delivered bunker premiums were seen app. $9.5 above cargo prices at the end of the week. This morning both markets are trading higher.

Forward Indications

Product	Dec	Jan	Feb	Q114	Q214	2014
NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month)	94,64	94,73	94,77	94,73	93,62	92,76
ICE Brent Swap (1st month)	105,09	104,77	104,76	104,43	103,47	102,93
ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month)	893,42	892,75	892,83	892,25	887,42	886,31
3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm	566,50	569,25	569,25	569,75	569,25	567,75
3.5% Cargoes FOB Med	561,25	564,00	563,50	563,00	562,25	561,75
1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE	587,00	590,25	591,25	591,25	593,00	590,25
3% no. 6 USGC WB	89,25	89,00	89,00	89,00	88,75	88,50
380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore	593,00	589,25	588,50	588,75	588,00	587,75
0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm	894,25	894,25	894,25	893,25	888,25	887,25
Physical Rotterdam 380 CST	571,75	574,50	574,50	574,50	573,50	572,00
Physical Singapore 380 CST	598,25	594,50	593,75	594,00	593,25	593,00

Focus of the day: Gibraltar

Fine weather conditions and good product availability at the three ports in the Strait this morning, without any congestion to start up the week. The first levels seen this morning in the Strait show quite competitive bunker premiums. Prompt requirements are still possible to accommodate for some suppliers. CIF Med 3.5% is trading some 15 usd/mt above FOB Barges Rotterdam and the HILO is currently around 19 usd/mt in the Med, with the CIF Med 1% premium over FOB NWE 1% at 18 usd/mt. The Med market is trading up this morning.

Economy fundamentals this week

Statistic	Importance	Date	Time	Period	Consensus	Last	Actual
MBA Mortgage Index	Medium	13-Nov	7:00 AM	09-nov	NA	-7.00%	-
Treasury Budget	Medium	13-Nov	2:00 PM	Oct	NA	-$120.0B	-
Initial Claims	Medium	14-Nov	8:30 AM	09-nov	335K	336K	-
Trade Balance	Medium	14-Nov	8:30 AM	Sep	-$38.5B	-$38.8B	-
Productivity- Prel	Medium	14-Nov	8:30 AM	Q3	0.50%	0.00%	-
Empire Manufacturing	Medium	15-Nov	8:30 AM	Nov	3	1.5	-
Industrial Production	Medium	15-Nov	9:15 AM	Oct	0.20%	0.60%	-
Capacity Utilization	Medium	15-Nov	9:15 AM	Oct	78.40%	78.30%	-
Wholesale Inventories	Medium	15-Nov	10:00 AM	Sep	-0.10%	0.50%	-