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The traders at ICE and NYMEX are expected to be cautious today ahead of the release of a series of US indicators that were postponed over the last couple of weeks because of the government shutdown. In particular, investors will eye the DoE's oil inventory report today at 4.30 p.m. and tomorrows nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate. After Friday's rise some market participants could be encouraged to sell their long positions in order to minimize their risk. But analysts caution that the oil market will be very hard to read this week. Last week the API had released a 5.9 million barrel increase in US crude stocks. The spread between the two benchmark crudes stays high at about 8.85 dollars for the December contracts. The spread rose again because of the rise in Cushing crude stocks. In the course of the past 14 weeks stocks in Cushing had dropped. The geopolitical situation has improved after the resolution for Syria, the rise in Libyan oil production and the positive talks on Iran's nuclear programme. Even though meteorologists forecast a mild winter for the US, temperatures in many parts of the country are seen below normal in the two weeks to come. After oil markets slumped Thursday, they were at first consolidating hardly changed Friday morning. Thanks to China's positive GDP in Q3, oil prices firmed up in the course of the European session, breaching several resistances. Technical buying orders then accelerated the upturn. The release of economic indicators, including the leading indicator, had once again been postponed. Thus, oil futures lacked fresh signals and trading was mainly guided by technical factors. In late trade, oil contracts at ICE and NYMEX saw another slight advance after the API had released its oil consumption statistics for September. These showed an increase of 2.7% on the year. Consequently, Brent and G.Oil closed at their day's high, but remained below their resistances at 110.30 USD and at 944.75 USD. WTI was edging lower than the other futures and settled near its opening level as the API's inventory data, which had been released the day before, had shown a considerable build in crude stocks in Cushing after having continuously declined for 14 weeks.

ICE Gasoil contract for November delivery settled at 939.25 USD on Friday. This was 7.75 USD below Thursday's settlement. With some 61,800 deals, the traded volume was above average.

The Stochastic is no longer bearish for ICE futures as the indicator's lines are converging, or rather, parelling. The indicators still is slightly bearish for WTI, but the selling signal already dates a few days back and is gradually losing its effect, see also technical analysis. While the U.S. crude benchmark holds steady within its downward trend channel, a distinct downward tendency cannot yet be seen at the Brent and G.Oil chart. However, both contracts have already left the short-term uptrend that had formed at the beginning of October and are now consolidating sideways. Due to the lack of fresh signals, we consider the technical constellation as neutral this morning.

U.S.

Nymex bearish: After oil prices considerably advanced during Friday's session, some traders are apparently liquidating their long positions and display little risk appetite ahead of the long-awaited release of the EIA's inventory data. The traded NYMEX volume is below average for this time of day. Market players are now waiting for the performance of European markets, for fresh signals from forex trading and for the upcoming economic indicators out of the USA, with the DoE data certainly getting most attention today.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 18-10)
380cst $604
180cst $660
MGO $1015

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 18-10)
380cst $607
180cst $653
MGO $1018

Singapore

Crude is losing still with WTI -$0.41. Singapore paper is back up, gaining with +$3.75 for 180cst and +$2.75 for 380cst for Nov, and for Dec 180 cst +$3.60 and 380cst +$3.25 with MGO contracts Nov +$0.85 and Dec +$0.81. The cargo market is reacting to last weeks bearishness, losing with 180cst -$2.51, 380cst -$2.71 and MGO -1.51.

380cst $620
180cst $625
MGO $938

Fujairah (delivered indications 21-10)

380cst $621
180cst $678
MGO $1009

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $586
(1.0 %) :$607
180cst: $617
(1.0 %):$ 627
MGO 0.1%S: $ 910