---

Trend:

Rotterdam: $ 1 higher
Singapore: $ 3 higher
US Gulf: $ 1 lower

Iran into space? (Brent: $104.50)

On Sunday, Iran claimed to have opened a center for space security. According to the Iranian government, sattelites and other space-objects should hereafter not be able to pass Iran unnoticed. The Iranian secretary of defense was quoted as saying: "The newly opend center is to secure the country’s space facilities and monitor objects in the space above Iran - especially satellites".

In Iraq, high wind disrupted oil operations end of last week. Exports went from +2.2mbpd to 0.86mbpd. As Iraqi exports from its biggest terminals in Basra have a tendency to fluctuate along with weather conditions, this drop is not unusual. Should exports be subdued for a prolonged period it would however support prices.

In Africa, Sudan and South Sudan have yet (another) disagreement. Sudan has threatened to close the pipelines "within 60 days", unless South Sudan "stops backing rebels". The pipelines through Sudan are currently the only way for South Sudan to get its product to the world market. The pipeline through Kenya is not expected to come online for quite some time. The clashes between the two African nations would have had a higher impact on oil prices had the global supply situation not been in decent shape.

Recommendation

Currently we are in the lower part of the overall 100-120 range. Many factors point to strong support around the $100 level. Consumers are advised to partly hedge their exposure to mitigate any sudden spikes due to increased geopolitical unrest, or oil catching up to equity markets.