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The extremely positive economic data out of the USA, China and Europe raised investors’ hopes for sustainable recovery of the gobal economy and thus of oil demand. This dampens the impact of record inventories in crude and oil products as well as of the continuing weak demand and will keep supporting the price level during trading today. Geopolitical tensions could also come to the fore again today after North Korea has announced new nuclear tests and Western governments urged their citizens to leave the Lybian capital Benghazi. Iran’s threat to block the strait of Hormuz for oil tankers has also been brought back on the table.

Oil prices traded with a firm tendency in Asian and electronic trading Thursday morning, slightly supported by the positive PMI out of China. A series of positive economic data released in Germany and Europe supported the euro when Brent unsuccessfully tested its resistances, preventing prices at ICE from falling through their supports. News about capacity limitations with the Seaway Pipeline only had a brief impact on prices in New York as this is not due to technical issues. When exclusively encouraging economic data was released in the USA, oil futures climbed to their day’s highs during NYMEX floor trading. As U.S. intial jobles claims fell to a 5-year low last week, WTI jumped up, with ICE futures lagging behind. The bullish data also had a positive effect on the stock market in Europe and the USA as well as on the euro. Despite mix U.S. oil inventories, oil futures at ICE closed at a high level while WTI returned from its day’s high in late trading as a build in crude had been reported.

ICE Gasoil contract for February delivery settled at 976.00 dollars on Thursday. This was 5.25 dollars above Wednesday's settlement. With some 41,600 deals the traded volume was below average.

The lines of the stochastic have not crossed yet for Brent and G.Oil. The RSI has turned at the overbought level and could trigger a selling signal if the 70%-line was crossed. The indicators are still bearish for WTI but not as strongly overbought anymore. The upward trend channels are still intact, pointing to a continuation of the medium-term tendency, see also technical analysis. In all, the technical view is still neutral but a slight technical downward correction is to be expected due to the overbought market situation. But a sustainable correction requires the stochastic’s lines to cross.

U.S.

Nymex slightly bullish: Along with Asian stock markets (Nikkei 225) oil futures at ICE and NYMEX initially rose this morning. Meanwhile they have slightly retreated as stock markets in Europe have opened with some losses. Trading interest at NYMEX is clearly above average for this time of day. Market participants are waiting for the further development at European stock market and for signals from the forex market. They will also keep an eye on the economic data that are to be released today.

API: crude oil +3.2; distillates +1.3;gasoline -1.6 million barrels vs previous week.
DOE: crude oil +2.8; distillates +0.5;gasoline -1.7 million barrels vs previous week.
Survey: crude oil +2.3; distillates -0.3; gasoline +1.3 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 24-01)
380cst $628
180cst $688
MGO $1025

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 24-01)
380cst $643
180cst $683
MGO $1025

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

The Singapore fuel oil market prices rose more than $3.0 during the morning Platts window yesterday. The Singapore heavy residual inventory saw a draw of -0.8 mbbl to 17.6 mbbl to a 5 month low citing stronger demand regionally. The delivered bunker premiums were around +$7.0- 4.0 above cargo prices yesterday. Bunker fuel oil swaps gained over $6/mt at the front of the forward curve both for Singapore papers. Backend was a few dollars weaker. This morning markets are trading slightly down.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.
380 cst $637
180 cst $641
MDO $950

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

There were a few suppliers who were unable to supply for prompt deliveries due to busy schedules. The port of Rotterdam and Antwerp are experiencing difficulties with LSFO for prompt deliveries due to operational delays. Due to the tightness of LSFO in Antwerp the premiums are expected to be higher.

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $ 622
(1.0 %) :$ 652
180cst: $ 652
(1.0 %):$ 682
MGO 0.1%S: $ 970