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Trends

Rotterdam: $ 5 higher
Singapore: $ 5 higher
US Gulf: $ 4 higher

Production halted in biggest US refinery (Brent: $111.8)

The biggest US refinery (600,000 bpd) located in the US Gulf has halted production just after undergoing 6 months of repair work. If the halt in the crude runs at the Shell/Saudi Aramco refinery lasts for a couple of days, it is likely to affect the inventory numbers published next week.

This week's publication will be today at 16.30 CET, where a build in crude is likely following last week's massive draw.

In Libya, protests at the minor export terminal (60-70,000 bpd) in Zueitina have resulted in a complete halt in exports. For now the significance in the 1.5 mbpd exporting nation is on the very low end. There are currently no indications that the situation will escalate like in 2011, but we will monitor the situation and bring updates if things escalate.

Recommendation

Clients are advised to enter hedges during market outliers. For the past decade prices have only increased after the month of January. Currently option prices with short duration are – relatively – cheap compared to the past two years. Please contact your dedicated Oil Risk Manager for an in-depth discussion of your most advantegous opportunities in the oil market.