---

Oil trimmed its fourth weekly gain after U.S. Federal Reserve policy makers signalled they may end a stimulus program this year, raising concern the economic recovery may falter in the world’s biggest crude user. US Intermediate oil for February delivery fell as much as 85 cents to $92.07 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $92.17 at 4:11 p.m. in Singapore. Futures closed 20 cents lower yesterday after climbing to $93.12 a barrel.

In the course of Thursday morning, the oil market tested its downward potential after the euphoria about the "cliff deal" in U.S. budget talks was fading. The soft euro vs the dollar and expected bearish DoE data favoured the downward correction, which could particularly be felt with distillates. While Brent and WTI held their ground above their resistances at 111.65 dollars and 92.50 dollars respectively until the end of the day, G.Oil fell to 930.50 dollars. In the morning, German job market data was disappointing. Figures out of the USA released in the afternoon were mixed. The better than expected ADP report did have a greater impact than the weekly new jobless claims and favoured oil futures testing upwards in the afternoon. Later in the evening, the FOMC minutes surprised traders. During a meeting in December, some U.S. central bankers had advocated to terminate the loose U.S. monetary policy earlier than planned. Accordingly, oil prices retreated and slipped with the opening of Asian trading early this morning. In addition, the API released its U.S. petroleum inventories for the past week. After a massive draw in crude and an enormous build in products, the data was rather mixed. But with the FOMC minutes dominating the scene, the market only reacted slightly to the API report. Now traders wait for the DoE data to be released at 5 p.m. to draw final conclusions.

ICE Gasoil contract for January delivery settled at 935.75 dollars on Thursday. This was 6.75 dollars below Wednesday's settlement. With some 61,800 deals the traded volume was above average.

After the stochastic oscillator had been bearish for WTI yesterday, it now also gives a selling signal for Brent this morning after the indicator's lines crossed. The stochastic, however, remains neutral for G.Oil but could turn bearish, too, in the course of the day if the lines crossed. The RSI for WTI and Brent stays above the 70%-line, indicating an overbought situation which favours profit-taking. Selling signals, however, do not appear yet and will only arise if the 70%-line is breached top-down. see also technical analysis. The bearish stochastic for WTI and Brent indicates further downside, from a technical point of view, but the steep, upward trend channels (G.Oil consolidates sideways) remain intact and support lines limit its leeway. Due to the downward correction in early morning trading, oil futures partly lost their bearish potential. In case of more downside, futures will have to be oriented towards their key supports at 924.75 dollars G.Oil, at 110.30 dollars Brent and 91.40 dollars WTI. If these supports were actually breached, automatic selling orders might be triggered. But analysts point out that the important fundamental data (U.S. job market statistics and DoE data) could provide some guiding signals.

U.S.

Nymex Access bearish: Due to the FOMC minutes and the soft euro, oil prices slipped at the opening of Asian trading. Trading interest at NYMEX is clearly above average for this time of day. Market participants are waiting for the European market to open and for economic data to be released in the course of the day, particularly important today are the DoE data and the U.S. job market statistics.

API: Crude oil -12.0; distillates +6.7; gasoline +3.3 million barrels vs previous week.
Doe: due out tonight.
Survey: Crude oil -1.5; distillates +1.6; gasoline +1.4 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 03-01)
380cst $628
180cst $672
MGO $1005

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 03-01)
380cst $638
180cst $673
MGO $1000

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

WTI is neutral with -$0.44. Paper for Dec are very strong 180cst +$10.45 and for 380cst +$10.50 , Jan contracts were trading with 180cst +$8.50, 380st +$9.50. The cargo market went in upwards direction with 180cst +$4.58, 380cst +$4.95 and MGO +$0.30.

The Singapore bunker differential – the price spread between delivered marine fuel prices and fuel oil cargo values – dropped $5.23/mt to $10.34/mt discount to 380-CST quotes. Delivered 380cst in Singapore was seen between $603/mt - $618/mt. Bunker fuel oil swaps gained up to $8/mt at the front and only $3-4/mt at the backend of the forward curve for Singapore papers. This morning the markets are trading slightly up.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.
380 cst $629
180 cst $636
MDO $938

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

In general there are good stocks of products and availability of barges reported. However there are some suppliers stating they are fully booked till 07/01. This is the same for Antwerp and Rotterdam.

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $ 609
(1.0 %) :$ 629
180cst: $ 639
(1.0 %):$ 659
MGO 0.1%S: $ 914